Good morning and welcome PJ readers! Scroll down for more updates (and analysis). I am also updating here.
UPDATE #2 (7:55 PM, 1/14): I have new updates here.
UPDATE #3 (1/15): I've removed the pictures..for copyright reasons. I won't get into the reasons here -- this is a terrorism blog. Let's just say, being sued over linked pics is just not a fight worth my time.
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CNN and ABCNews are reporting that Ayman is gonzo. Lord, please!!! ABCNews has more than CNN right now, including this exciting piece of information:
The attack took place early this morning Pakistan time in a small village a few miles from the border with Afghanistan.
Villagers described seeing an unmanned plane circling the area for the last few days and then bombs falling in the early morning darkness.
Eighteen people were killed, according to the villagers who said women and children were among the fatalities.
But Pakistani officials tell ABC News that five of those killed were high-level al Qaeda figures, and their bodies are now undergoing forensic tests for positive identification.
Officials say Zawahiri was known to have used safe houses in this area last winter and was believed to be in the area again this winter.
Oh, who? Who? This is too exciting. Updates to come....
MSNBC (7:44 PM):
U.S. officials told NBC News on Friday that American airstrikes in Pakistan overnight Thursday were aimed at the No. 2 man in the al-Qaida terror organization — Ayman al-Zawahri.
One official said intelligence indicated a strong possibility that Zawahri was in the Pakistani village at the time of the airstrike, but there is no confirmation that he was killed.
Pakistani officials say U.S. aircraft, apparently CIA Predator drones, fired as many as 10 missiles at the residential compound.
The attack came in the Bajur region of Northwest Pakistan, along the Afghanistan border.
The CIA Predators carry as many as four Hellfire missiles. Only last month, the CIA used a Predator to kill the No. 3 man in al-Qaida in a similar Hellfire strike in Pakistan.
CNN broadcast (7:50 PM)
CNN reports there is videotape!!!! Government sources are confirming to CNN that it was a CIA strike.
Comment: Timing and confirmation patterns convince me that the Agency probably had very good intel on either on the ongoing utilization of the compound (probably from locals) or finally ID'd a willing agent close to senior leadership. Right now, I think the former idea is stronger. It makes sense since the US military has been working hard in the area developing relationships with locals affected by the recent earthquake.
Counterterrorism Blog (8:20 PM) links to a Pakistani news report:
Aircraft from Afghanistan killed as many as 18 people after firing two or three missiles in Pakistan’s Bajaur tribal region on Friday, a resident and a security official said. A resident of Bajaur, which borders Afghanistan's Kunar province, said the explosions were caused by firing from unidentified aircraft on the village of Damadola at about 3 a.m. (2200 GMT).
CTBlog also links to this Pakistani "Daily Times" report (with a picture):
Three houses were targeted in the attack in Damadola village, 30 kilometres north of Khar, in Mamoond tehsil at 3:00am. The houses were 50 kilometres from the Afghan border overlooking Kuner province, a hotbed of anti-US insurgency. Local administration official Abdul Qayyum said it was unclear what had actually happened. A fact-finding team was being dispatched to the area to investigate the incident, he said. Federal Information Minister Sheikh Rashid said: “Our agencies have not yet clarified exactly what happened.” US forces in Afghanistan killed eight tribesmen in a similar attack on January 8 in the Saidgai border village.
Local residents said that two of the six children killed were six years old. “The limbs of the dead were scattered all over the place,” said Lateef Khan, a local resident.
<SNIP>
Masood Khan, whose house was among those bombed and whose family was killed in the attack, said that he was asleep when he suddenly heard a loud explosion. Khan denied having any links with Al Qaeda or any banned militant organisation. “We have nothing to do with these groups,” he said. “We are innocent. We have been treated unjustly, and leave it to God to do justice.”
UPDATE (8:45 PM)
The MSNBC reporter (link here) said that US officials claim that we may never be able to know if Zawahiri was killed in the attack. That's silly. Of course we will. If he's dead then some other geek -- like Adam Gadahn -- is going to have to take over the AQ talking head post. If he's not, he'll make a video within the next few days -- possibly a week -- in order to stop any morale-killing speculation among his mujahid minions.
From CNN Broadcast (9:00 PM):
No new information. It appears that CIA is confirming the strike, but, big whoopie. Al- Jazeera and Pakistani news have the usual reports of "innocent women and children" were killed. Whatever.
Bil Maher is interviewing David Gergen on CNN right now. He says that there are a lot of sleeper cells out there who are operating without any central leadership. Huh?
Bill Maher says that Al Qaeda has become a "lifestyle" since we've invaded Iraq. Is this what passes for smart talk?
They're annoying me. I'm turning off CNN right now before my head explodes.
AP (9:15 PM); The Associated Press, or what I used to call Al-P, has lost its collective mind with a report so biased it must come straight from an Al Qaeda stringer:
Weeping villagers dug through the rubble of homes destroyed in an apparent pre-dawn air strike that killed at least 17 people in a remote Pakistani tribal village, the second such unexplained attack near the volatile Afghan border within a week.
Residents of Damadola, a hillside hamlet about 7 kilometers (4 miles) inside northwestern Pakistan, said Friday that children and women were among the dead. They recounted hearing aircraft flying overhead before bombs or missiles crashed through the Pashtun tribal village -- blasts that were felt by people miles away.
Update (9:25 PM):
One LGF reader says it best. Grim, indeed. In fact, it's so grim that I may just have to break open a Corona and enjoy this evening's surfing...
The Dawn (9:30): This updated information from the Dawn:
A Pakistani intelligence official said two aircraft had come in from Afghanistan and fired two or three missiles. "The casualties may be much higher. People are very angry. They are not allowing access, so exact figures of deaths and wounded people are not available," he said. A U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan said there were no reports of U.S. forces operating in that area.
It looks like a Gordian knot of bad information -- the kind that usually follows closely after a major incident -- is forming around this story. Circular reporting, hearsay, and the southwest Asian propensity toward BS is beginning to take it's toll.
Update 9: 38: BREAKING NEWS!!! I have no limes. This sucks.
UPDATE 9:45: Went to the GettyImages site, just to see if there were any pics. Nothing. But I did come across this one, and now I have ZZ Top in the head. Something about a sharp dressed man. [ZZ Top Waziristan image removed -- 1/15]
Update (9:55): AP (Via Foxnews website) appears to be relying on Pakistani officials. Perhaps their Pentagon reporter went home for the evening:
In Pakistan, the military only confirmed to The Associated Press that there had been explosions in a remote border village, but could not confirm the cause or casualties. The spokesman for President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said the incident was still being investigated.
"I am not in a position to say yes or no. We know that media is reporting it, but we have no such information, or any details. We are still investigating this matter," Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan told AP Saturday.
A senior Pakistani intelligence official told AP that he had no information that a top Al Qaeda figure had been targeted in the strike.
In Washington, Pentagon, State Department, National Security Council and intelligence officials all said they had no information on the reports concerning al-Zawahiri.
An AP reporter who visited the scene about 12 hours after what villagers said was an airstrike saw three destroyed houses, hundreds of yards apart. Villagers, who denied any links to the Taliban or Al Qaeda militants, had buried at least 15 people, including women and children, and were digging for more bodies in the rubble. There were no security forces in the area.
U.S. Pakistani officials told the media that U.S. predator drones fired as many as 10 missiles.
Doctors told The Associated Press that at least 17 people died in the attack before dawn on Friday — the second deadly strike in a week near the Afghan border.
Update via JawaReport (10:05 PM): An anthology of incoherent thoughts from a man who is supposedly the president of the Middle Eastern Studies Association (or something like that):
This time the leaks seem also to come from Washington counter-terrorism sources, so maybe there is something to them. On the other hand, the US intelligence people may have decided that Zawahiri has been making too much noise and that starting a rumor that he may have been killed will hurt his charisma at least in the short term.
This world is murky.
WTF?! This is what passes for ME studies analysis? "The world is murky." No shit, really? We've decided he's "making too much noise" and so we're going to take him out? Perhaps it was fucking 9-11 that convinced us of this, Professor Cole!
This guy is supposedly at the forefront of the educational system training analysts to work in the three-letter agencies. I've worked in a few of those three letter agencies. I now know why I hated the ME studies majors. They think like Juan Cole, and we're fucking doomed.
CNN Update (10:20 PM): There's a video at the story link.
BBCNews Update (10:23 PM): Reporting at BBC News, where the passive voice and neutralizing modifiers are piled high and deep:
Afghan and US-led coalition forces believe Taleban-led militants take advantage of the porous border.
Zawahiri, seen as Osama Bin Laden's second-in-command, has eluded capture since the US toppled the Taleban in Afghanistan in 2001 despite a $25m bounty on his head.
He has become al-Qaeda's most senior spokesman in videos released by the group in recent months.
The US military in Afghanistan said on Friday it had no reports of American operations in the area of the latest attack.
But US television network NBC quoted Pakistani sources as saying the strikes were probably carried out by unmanned CIA Predator drones, which fired up to 10 missiles.
The raid took place in the village of Damadola in the Bajaur tribal area, about 200km (125 miles) north-west of Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.
The village is about 7km (4.5 miles) inside Pakistan.
The drones fired 10 missiles? That's way too many missiles for a drone. Perhaps there was more than one drone flying around. I wonder if there was a party going on at Drone central after the dust settled.
CT Blog Update (10:30): I just read this line at CTBlog again for the first time:
A reliable source with high-level U.S. contacts tells me that U.S. "really believes" we might have whacked him. This effort has developed over the past few days as intel has indicated his presence in Damadola, a small village near the Afghan border.
Spot Analysis (10:55 PM): Since an operation like this probably didn't make it into the regular intelligence community (IC) information streams, there's a lot of buzz around the IC right now. The poor schnooks that have to man the 24/7 watch centers are being innundated with phone calls from senior managers demanding more information. The problem is there is no information available except in open source streams. This makes the intel whores angry because the news that Zawahiri finally met his maker is only worth reading if it's portion marked. However, there are guarded calls of congratulations bouncing back and forth this lovely city.
I would be guarded in my optimism if it wasn't for the firm confirmations coming from senior level intel officials. Right now, they're the only ones in the know, and if they're willing to leak it, the news must be good. If it wasn't good news, it wouldn't be confirmed at senior levels. Then, months later, one of Juan Cole's former students would leak a classified after action report to Newsweek or Amnesty International.
GettyImages Update (11:15 PM): I just reexamined a CNN report from last hour. There's video from the scene, and the camera focuses prominently on a dead cow. It's an Al Qaeda Holstein, I'm sure of it. It'll take PETA about 24 hours to make an official statement on this senseless killing. However, I bet they won't have much to say about this horrible ritual for the Feast of Sacrifice: [vile image removed - 1/15] Cultural relativism be damned. This is vile.
UPDATE at 11:25: BBC Monitoring service reports that Pakistani state news agencies are NOT reporting on the possible targeting of Zawahiri. I'm sorry, but this report isn't online. It's from my Factiva monitoring product. Here's the text:
Pakistan state media not reporting possible Al-Zawahiri death225 words13 January 200622:44English(c) 2006 The British Broadcasting Corporation. All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced except with the express permission of The British Broadcasting Corporation.As of 0300 gmt on 14 January, Pakistan's state-owned media, to include Islamabad Radio Pakistan and Islamabad Pakistan Television in Urdu and English, have not been observed to report on the possible death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, second in command in the Al-Qa'idah organization.
Islamabad Radio Pakistan in its regularly scheduled news programme in Urdu at 0200 gmt carried a report on the US Defence Department denying any US military operation on the Pakistani side of the border with Afghanistan.
Islamabad PTV World did not carry any report on either the alleged US operation or the reported possible killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri. The lead story on the television this morning was the death of Hajj pilgrims in Saudi Arabia.
The privately owned Dubayy Geo News in Urdu at 0240 gmt carried the following as scroll news:
"Washington: Al-Qa'idah deputy leader Aiman Al-Zawahiri may be dead in an air strike near Pakistani tribal area - US TV."
"Washington: US military not engaged in operation in Pakistani border area Pentagon."
All above-mentioned sources are observing normal programming. Geo News is carrying breaking news regarding the reported killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri along the Afghan border, but the audio is unmonitorable.
It's tough to make out what this means, and I won't even try at this late hour with two beers in me. I'm affraid I may start sounding like Professor Cole. I'll let you decide what this means.
Here's one last report for the night. It's an AFP report just over the Factiva wire. I've highlightedcertain sections that hint at Dr. Death's demise:
Pakistan investigating reports Al-Qaeda number two killed in strikeRJ722 words13 January 200623:25EnglishCopyright Agence France-Presse, 2006 All reproduction and presentation rights reserved.ISLAMABAD, Jan 14, 2006 (AFP) -
Pakistan is investigating whether Al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in a deadly US air strike on a village near the Afghan border, Pakistani and US officials said Saturday.
US Central Intelligence Agency sources said they had unconfirmed indications that a high-level target, possibly Osama bin Laden's Egyptian number two and chief ideologue, was killed by a US Predator drone in Pakistan.
"We are investigating and as of now we are not in a position to say yes or no," Major General Shaukat Sultan, the spokesman for President Pervez Musharraf and for Pakistan's military, told AFP when asked to confirm whether Zawahiri was killed in the strike.
"The investigation is going on as to what happened there," Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid told AFP, without elaborating. He refused to comment on whether Zawahiri may have been involved.
At least 18 people including women and children died when missiles hit the village of Damadola, part of Mamund town in northwestern Pakistan's restive Bajur tribal region bordering Afghanistan early Friday, residents said.
Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao said a number of the dead appeared to be foreigners with suspected terror links.
"It seems there were some people who were not locals and they were possibly involved in sabotage activities. Most of the bodies were charred," Sherpao told AFP.
"But we have no information about Zawahiri. We are investigating what caused the explosions."
US intelligence sources told AFP here that the CIA had indications that a top Al-Qaeda operative -- maybe Zawahiri -- might have died in an attack by a remotely-piloted US drone.
"The CIA has indications that a high-level Al-Qaeda operative was killed by a Predator strike in Bajur. They are confirming an operation in Bajur," one of the sources told AFP on condition of anonymity.
"They say the strike may have killed Zawahiri."
The US Defense Department denied that the US military had carried out any attacks in the area. "There is no reason to believe the US military is conducting operations there," said Lieutenant Colonel Todd Vician.
Villagers in Damadola said they heard aircraft or helicopters before the strike and that the only victims were local people.
The target was a cluster of three houses owned by a jeweller named Abdul Ghafoor, whose relatives were among the victims, resident Waheed Gul said by telephone.
"According to our information there were no foreigners among the 18 who were martyred in the attack," Gul said.
Local legislator Haroon Rasheed, who represents the hardline Jamaat-e-Islami party, told AFP he had called for a protest rally in the town to condemn the attack on "innocent people".
The CIA is known to conduct operations along the long and porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border in the hunt for bin Laden and his deputies, believing tribesmen may have sheltered them after a US-led operation overthrew Afghanistan's pro-Al-Qaeda Taliban regime in late 2001.
Locals said a senior Egyptian Al-Qaeda commander named Hamza Rabia was killed in the tribal zone in December by a missile fired from a Predator, although Pakistan said the blast happened when munitions exploded inside his house.
US television network ABC quoted Pakistani military sources as saying five of the 18 people killed in Friday's blast were "high level Al-Qaeda figures", and that forensic tests were being conducted to identify the remains.
An eye surgeon, Zawahiri has become Al-Qaeda's most senior spokesman in videos released in recent months as bin Laden has remained out of the public eye.
Zawahiri appeared in a new video released last week, calling on the United States to withdraw from Iraq, leading some analysts to speculate that he was now the group's effective leader.
The United States has been offering a 25-million-dollar reward for Zawahiri since the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington.
Zawahiri became a radical Islamist in the 1960s and was a leader of Egypt's fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood group.
He was implicated in the 1981 assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and the massacre of foreign tourists at Luxor in 1997. After the September 11 attacks, he was seen in video tapes with bin Laden.
Good news all around. I can't wait to see what kind of news this long weekend brings.
UPDATE (11:44 PM): Okay, one more update: BBC Monitoring service (via Factiva) had this summary of current Al-Jazeera reporting:
Al-Jazeera TV anchorperson then interviews Ahmad Zaydan, chief of the Al-Jazeera office in Islamabad, on the possible death of Ayman al-Zawahiri in this operation. Zaydan says: "So far, there has been no official Pakistani confirmation of such reports." He adds: "Pakistani security sources deny the presence of any of Al-Qa'idah leaders in the three buildings, which was the target of the US attack. The eyewitnesses and the local citizens, who were interviewed by Al-Jazeera team in the area, affirmed to us that all those who were killed were from the local residents." Zaydan then cites "analysts and observers" as saying that the US television networks "rushed" to report on the possible killing of Al-Zawahiri because "the US Army seeks to justify this blow."
Speaking about "contradiction in the US story," Ahmad Zaydan says that the US Army spokesman in Afghanistan first denied any knowledge of the blasts that took place in the Pakistani village in the tribal area. Zaydan then says that US television networks cited US sources as saying that US spy plane fired 15 missiles at three buildings in the area. Al-Jazeera chief correspondent in Islamabad Zaydan says: "Pakistani officials have not yet confirmed whether these missiles were fired by US planes from inside Afghanistan. Local citizens, however, assert that three or five helicopters fired 7, 8, or 15 missiles. Al-Jazeera correspondent checked the missiles that fell in the area but did not find any mark showing that they were made in the United States."
During its 0300 gmt newscast, Al-Jazeera TV reports that the Pakistani information minister told Reuters that he cannot confirm "targeting" Ayman al-Zawahiri during a US raid on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area. Interviewed again by Al-Jazeera TV anchorman in the Doha studio during the 0300 gmt newscast, chief of Al-Jazeera office in Islamabad Ahmad Zaydan says that according to analysts and observers "the coming hours will not carry anything new." He adds that the only thing that will come out during the coming hours is "denial of what was broadcast by some US television networks on the possible killing of the second man in command in Al-Qa'idah Ayman al-Zawahiri." Zaydan repeats his remarks on the "contradiction" in the US story about the incident.
While reporting on the attack on the tribal area on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area, Al-Jazeera continues to show video of the destruction inflicted on Pakistani village.
UPDATE (11:25 AM -- Saturday):
CNN reports that Dr. Death probably wasn't killed in the attack, but I've noticed its source this morning is Pakistani. Nice people, bad sources. The Washington Post site doesn't even have the incident as a secondary headline. I won't waste my time there. Meanwhile, the New York Times only summarizes other news outlet reports:
[Two senior Pakistani government officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press on Saturday that Mr. Zawahiri was not at the site that was attacked. Pakistan was expected to release more information about its probe into the attack later Saturday.]
The American and Pakistani officials said they believed that the attack had been carried out with a missile launched from a Predator drone aircraft operated by the Central Intelligence Agency.
A C.I.A. spokesman declined to comment, but the attack was described by other American and Pakistani officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified nature of the operation.
Villagers and security officials said the aircraft, which they described as American, swept into the Pakistani tribal region from Kunar Province in eastern Afghanistan about 3:15 a.m. local time Friday and fired missiles at residential buildings in Damadola, a village several miles from the border.
Citing unidentified American sources, CNN said Friday night that intelligence suggested that Mr. Zawahiri had been in a building that was struck. ABC News, citing anonymous Pakistani military officials, said on its Web site that five of those killed were high-level Qaeda figures.
The US sources are not confirming that Dr. Death wasn't killed, and until that happens, I'll go about my day with a smile on my face. On the blog side, Dread Pundit Bluto over at The Jawa Report has a summary of Pakistani coverage. This is how the reporting should be done.
