National Public Radio recently reported on the apparent "growth" of groups associated with Al Qaeda. The report is mostly OK. It mentions the emergence of Al Qaeda of the Islamic Magreb (AQIM), and a "new" group in Lebanon. Being NPR, they rely on an analyst from a progressive think tank to provide the insight, and this is where the segment breaks down, because, as you know, it's all about Iraq for some, even if Al Qaeda has been associated with some of these "new" groups or their leadership for decades:
"Al-Qaida, because of its perceived success — especially in Iraq — is the team you want to be on," said Daniel Benjamin, of the Brookings Institution, who was formerly a director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council.
The appearance of new offshoot groups across the Middle East and North Africa is good news for al-Qaida's core leadership, believed to be holed up in Pakistan, Benjamin said.
"Remember, what al-Qaida wants most is to mobilize the Muslim world. And so every time a new group signs on, particularly takes the name, then it's — it's a coup for them," Benjamin said.
Later on, this:
Benjamin said, al-Qaida's appeal worldwide appears to be growing and that the core network has been revitalized.
"The jihadist movement, essentially, has been growing and strengthening since the invasion of Iraq," Benjamin said. "That, I think is clear. It's also that their ambitions are intact, and their willingness to try big, dangerous conspiracies is there."
The good news in all this, Benjamin said, is that none of the new offshoot groups appear capable of directly threatening the United States. But al-Qaida-linked groups are "ever more active in more parts of the world," he said. "And that is not the outcome we wanted."
There's no doubt that Al Qaeda is implementing a global strategy here, but I wonder if it has more to do with a Islamically-informed understanding of defensive strategy rather than with an "expanding, revitalized" Al Qaeda.
I can't identify a single source, but numerous times over the past year, I've read jihadist discussions of strategy, and they always include examples of Mohammed's use of strategic retreat, and his practice of spreading out remaining forces to harass enemy positions and supply lines. We may be seeing just such a strategy being used here. With few surviving leaders, Al Qaeda may have decided to spread out their resources (financial, technical, etc) to as many areas of the world as possible.
Most analysts don't add the God-factor into their thinking of Al Qaeda, either, and here, too we may find better answers than the "it's all about Iraq" filler. One of the numerous lessons the Islamic military scholars discuss is the need for the mujahideen to trust God. This means that when needed a military commander should take very high risks in the middle of battle. Since it's assumed that God is with them, then there's always the possibility that a miracle may happen. This is why the Saudi branch may use only four men to attack an oil installation or a civilian compound. It also introduces an element of surprise, and may confuse the enemy into thinking that an army is bigger or stronger than it actually is.
The rest of the report is, as I said, OK. Another analyst raises a significant point:
But the real fear among intelligence officials and analysts is that the new partnership with al-Qaida brings new obligations to attack what's known as the "Far Enemy" — the West. This month, police in Milan arrested several members of the group, who were allegedly planning attacks in Italy.
Rob Richer, a former deputy director of the CIA's clandestine service, says the advantage for would-be terrorists is that once you're inside Europe, you can move around anywhere freely and with little notice.
"You disappear into these great North African basins of populations, of second- and third-generation North Africans who are living in those countries," Richer said. "And you can't be tracked. French security services will tell you, there are certain population areas of France they don't go into! They can't operate there. Well, I would say to you — if you're gonna have a significant threat (to) an American embassy, an American business — it's gonna come from that venue."
Quoting a former CIA CT analyst:
One more place to watch: Libya. U.S. intelligence officials say the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group has been on the cusp of joining al-Qaida for some time. It hasn't — yet — but Roger Cressey, a former White House counterterrorism official, says more Libyans have been showing up in senior positions in the al-Qaida hierarchy.
"We've seen North Africans become significant operational players within the remnants of al-Qaida's leadership," Cressey said. "So, years ago, it was Egyptians and Saudis that ran the show. Now we're seeing the North Africans taking a more prominent role."
There's also some time given to the Libyans among Al Qaeda leadership, an interesting development since Al Qaeda has always been dominated by Egyptians and Saudis. It's safe to say, however, that many of the Libyans and other North Africans now active in leadership positions within Al Qaeda were there long before we invaded Iraq.
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