AKI reports tonight that the head of Al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate has publicly warned foreign tourists to leave the country.
"We warn all the unbelievers who enter the Arabian Peninsula that [targeting] their money and their blood are religiously right for us," said al-Qaeda of the Jihad in the South of the Arabian Peninsula in a statement that was published in its e-magazine entitled "Epic Echo".
"We want to tell you that if you enter the Arabian Peninsula under any name or cover, whether as tourists, diplomats, university professors or journalists, know that we are justified in targeting you," said the statement.
"We do not respect any of the agreements signed by the Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and various governments."
The terrorists also mentioned the al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and accused Europeans of not having accepted his offer of peace offered to European governments in April 2004.
The last paragraph is most important, because it highlights Al Qaeda's persistence. The warning given to Europeans in 2004 caused a fuss at the time, but has long since been forgotten by most Americans and Europeans. But Bin Laden's ultimatum to Europe was following the traditional rubric of warning your enemy before you attack. Europeans -- like the Americans -- were probably expecting an attack somewhere in Western Europe. There have been two major attacks in Europe, and several near operational plots thwarted, but nothing on the grand scale of 9-11.
However, Al Qaeda's strategic thinking with Europe parallels its U.S. strategy. It doesn't need to attack Europeans in Europe when it can do it closer to their area of operations, ie Afghanistan. This is the thinking behind their energy threat strategy: retreat, retrench, rebuild, and attack the enemy's economic foundations. Yemen is increasingly becoming tourist destination for Europeans, and Al Qaeda's branch there has become increasingly effective at harming the country's key economic growth sectors: tourism and energy.
The threat should be taken seriously.
Al Qaeda's capabilities in Yemen are growing, even as they flee Iraq. The Yemeni group could end up benefiting from an Iraq pull out with new skilled, battle-hardened fighters as the group's leadership decides to move their mujahideen from one region of "open jihad" (Iraq) to others like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen.
If pressure isn't placed on the group now through government efforts, then we could see the re-invigoration of the Saudi branch of the group along with the emergence of a new, effective Al Qaeda branch in Yemen. Yemen's cultural, familial, and ethnic ties with Saudi Arabia are very strong, and many Saudi Al Qaeda members are of Yemeni heritage. With an increase capacity to organize, fund, operate and regularly communicate, Al Qaeda's Yemeni branch could become the next breeding and training ground for an attack on "economic" targets in Saudi Arabia, most likely energy facilities.
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