As I said last night, I think that one factor in the analytical meltdown related to the "Nuclear Jihad" video was the lack of appreciation of the unique characteristics of open source information. In the intelligence community open source is generally considered the crazy wife the in attic, something to manage and mine, and only taken seriously when it "acts up."
Bill over at Jihadica gets it, because he provides the context for the Internet chatter he's analyzing. Case in point, his "Channeling Sageman" post, and his own take on recent "nuke chatter." Context may not be everything, but it is a key factor in understanding the open source information produced in the online global jihad.