Good News Out of KSA
The wires are reporting tonight that Saudi officials have announced the result of another multi-month nationwide roundup of AQ members. Like in previous years, there were energy facility targets in the plotting. According to this Reuters report, Zawahiri was in some way helping coordinate the attack planning:
Some planned to use car bombs to attack an oil installation and a security target in coordination with Al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahri, who had planned to send fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and North Africa to help them, the ministry statement said.
"Security forces managed to arrest one cell in the Eastern Province led by African residents ... their concern was to get close to people working in the oil sector in order to find work in oil installations," it said.
The make up of the arrested cells is interesting:
There were 40 Mauritanians among those held in the province, as well as Afghans, Iraqis and Yemenis, a security source said
Yemenis should be expected, but Mauritanians? AQ has had some success targeting Africans from the Sahel for recruitment. March reports of fund raising arrests hinted at a possible Zawahiri role in ongoing Peninsula plot coordination. Current news suggests that Dr. Z is directing any efforts to attack energy infrastructure on the Peninsula. It also suggests that regardless of current analytical fads, AQ remains very much a top down organization.
Some CT analysts will dismiss any threat to the region's infrastructure by pointing to AQ's failure at Abqaiq in Feb 2006. But it's important to remember that the Saudis have thwarted ambitious, large scale attacks targeting energy facilities every year since 2005. Consider then the complete time line of attacks and near-operational attacks which includes:
- Ad Dammam (September 2005) - near operational
- Abqaiq (February 2006)
- Planes plot (April-July 2007) - near operational
- 2008 Plot (June 2008) - TBA
I've said before that our national economic security rests in part on the success of Saudi CT efforts. For the time being, they remain effective.
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