Mixed Results

I came across a WNC translation (GMP20080919342002) about a week ago that I thought was interesting.  It's an example of the adversary -- in this case various "analysts" posting at a jihadi forum dissembling al-Qaida's recent fumble on the September 11th commemoration video -- and doing a mixed job of it.  Will at Jihadica has a great post on the original video problem if you need to get up to speed. Meanwhile,  the jihadi analysis collected here is demonstrative of the kind of material that usually passes on the forums:  a mixed bag of insights and stupidity, occasional lucid thought juxtaposed with amateurish editorializing.

Excerpt follows:

"Analyst Abu-Ubaydah al-Mutarabbis saw that delaying the release of the production was just an attempt of a drowning person: 'It has been observed lately and clearly that the media attack against the Al-Qa'ida Organization and its branches has escalated, even though the concentration has been on the strong front in Afghanistan and Pakistan, since this front enjoys a good moral and financial support for the mujahidin worldwide and because of its symbolic value in the global war between the arrogant crusader war and the jihad select group of the ummah (Muslim community).

"Just as this media concentration escalated, it was preceded by a clear escalation in the battlefield, through which the Bush Administration has been trying to realize a noticeable advancement on the ground with the hope that it can preserve some of its pride, which the mujahidin had tarnished.

"An Attempt During the Time That Is Left (for the US Administration)

"Our analyst sees that this is normal and that the motives are very obvious. The Bush era is about to end, and the wars on which the criminals of the White House had bet have gone out of their control in all the fronts, even though the Iraqi battlefield witnessed some 'visible' deterioration in favor of the Crusaders, the politicians of the White House and their soldiers know more than others that their 'advancement' is fragile and is built on a void. What they achieved has begun to collapse as a result of the attacks of the mujahidin and their stupidity and the hatred of the rejectionists (Shia).

"In short, it is an attempt and a last breath by the one who threatened and warned seven years a go to burn down the land of anyone who stands in the way of his 'global' war on Islam, trying to conclude his era with points in his favor and in favor of his party and his successor.

"It was an attempt to silence the mujahidin and to surpass their media attacks with hits that will paralyze their movement, even for a short period of time, the most important of which is September 11, the day on which the world anticipates statements, first from the jihad leaders, and the Crusader leaders. It is also the day on which the world evaluates the outcome of the ongoing war between the two parties.  Because most of those waiting were longing for the anticipated production, the content of which Al-Sahab was very good and professional in concealing, the worshippers of the cross decided to rob the mujahidin of this opportunity and to mute their voices by increasing the sounds of their shelling in Pakistan and Waziristan, and by carrying out spectacular moves in Iraq such as military campaigns and claims of withdrawal from the former 'strongholds' of the mujahidin to suggest to the world that the situation has changed in their favor in the various conflict regions and fields.

"Our analyst 'Al-Mutarabbis' believes that delaying the release of the production comes as part of a more comprehensive plan (in addition to attempting to silence the mujahidin), and that is to plant doubt in the involvement of the mujahidin in the Manhattan attacks. This issue might have been the most prominent headline in the media campaign lately against the mujahidin. 'I could hardly find one prominent media source that did not exaggerate the conspiracy theory and did not shed the light on it more. The purpose behind this is clear. The first reason is to say that the war, which the mujahidin consider as a conquest and a victory is nothing but a trick played by the Mossad and the CIA, and thus, you who are following the news, what did Al-Qa'ida achieve and what did it benefit since the beginning of the war?'

"Therefore these are two goals of the latest media pressure: silencing the mujahidin and preventing them from realizing a media victory, which they have been achieving for years, in return for giving the chance for the media to spread the conspiracy theory and exaggerate it.

"As for the question whether the knowledge of Al-Jazirah (TV) about the contents of the production played a role in disallowing it, the answer is definitely, though it is not the main reason. This is because I believe that the media attack was pre-planned, no matter what the contents of the production were. It is sufficient that it marks the attacks of New York and Washington, which in turn marks the day of the defeat of the American dignity and the victory of the jihadist genius. The contents of the production might have increased their determination to move forward with their plan.

I think we have a tendency to either creatively over play or condescendingly down play the adversary's capabilities.  There's the caricature of the all-powerful movement, of a networks of networks that has the ability to strike anywhere, anytime.  Worse, is the caricature of a movement of hapless amateurs.   In reality, it's a mixed bag of earnest fools, dreadful thugs, and the occasional brilliant mind.  As long as the latter are few and far between we should be successful.  However, I suspect that we are only one or two brilliant minds from a terrible terrorist attack.