You may be unaware of the situation in the Gulf of Aden, so let me fill you in: it's chaos. Somali pirates -- some no doubt affiliated with al-Qaida's HOA affiliate, Mujahideen Youth Movement (MYM)-- are in control of the waters off the coast of Africa between the Horn and Yemen.
It's not jihad related, not yet anyway. The pirates are undertaking kidnapping and ransom schemes, cargo theft, etc, in an effort to pull in cash. The problem is, they're wildly successful. I suspect that at least some of that cash soon will be financing al-Qaida's efforts in the HOA. If AQ hasn't already establish training camps and dawah networks within Somalia, they will be if the money continues to flow in.
EagleSpeak has been doing an excellent job covering the now-daily reports of cargo-seizures, hostage-takings, K&R transactions, etc, including news of the Iranian "mystery ship." So is Galrahn at Information Dissemination. OSINT is coming from many corners, with news of French commandos rescuing tourists, pirates seizing Russian tanks bound for Kenya (the MV Faina), and more stories emerging almost every day.
The Russians are sending a frigate to the region. According to Eagle1, the Malaysians are sending ships. The French, Italians, and Spanish have all expressed interest in sending more ships, planes, etc. However, the situation has been deteriorating for quite some time. Last week the US Navy suggested that merchant ships hire security services, much to Galrahn's chagrin:
I also find it very frustrating that last Thursday the Admirals stood in front of the American people in Durham and discussed in detail the role of naval power to protect the global system to insure the free flow of trade, and here we have a clear example of trade disruption on the seas and the US Navy basically tells ship owners they can't solve the problem.
The problem with this "it ain't our problem" approach is that eventually it will be our problem. Flush with cash, al Qaida will strike the region again. From a well-funded base in Somalia, it can project its power onto the Arabian Peninsula with ease. I suspect that we're woefully unprepared to respond to any looming threat in Somalia. What are our intel assets like? Do we have any MYM insiders on the payroll? I hope so.
AQ's next major plot targeting Gulf energy infrastructure may originate in the Horn, and we may never see it coming.
