I read this today, and it got me thinking about how AQ would come out of the Israel's Gaza incursion. My guess -- and it's only a guess -- is that regardless of the outcome for Israel or Hamas, AQ will come out of this looking very well.
Since Hamas came to power in 2006, AQ -- particularly through Zawahiri, its Egyptian leader -- has been pestering and condemning its political activity. There's been at least three video/audio statements in the last year, if I'm not mistaken. I'm drawing this from memory, but Zawahiri has done at least three. Then there is at least one by Abu Yahya al-Libbi and another by Bin Lande.
In most cases, Zawahiri/others noted that they would fail if they didn't repent of their governance sins (such as the group's nominal cooperation with UN) and follow AQ's vision of Islamic government. If Hamas fails, AQ's ideas on governance -- centered on contemporary Salafist-Jihadist thinking on hakamiyah -- will be given more credence. It makes possible the idea of AQ's sympathizers (a group that Dr. Z and UBL have addressed in the past) gaining political and social ground in the Strip at the expense of Hamas, and by extension, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
Again, this is only a guess, but it has a bit of confirmation today in the form of a statement by Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi
Read the whole thing at jihadica.
