Making Sense of Jihad

Unintended Consequences

My friends love cheap gas, and I love not hearing them whine about high gas prices.  The current global economic downturn may create cheaper prices at the pump, but there are two unintended consequences of inexpensive crude. 

First, capital investment in new capacity (ie the ability to explore, drill, extract and transport fossil fuels) greatly decreases, which is the topic of this post at MEMRIBlog.  When industry members pull back from improving or replacing current capacity now the chances for the industry to respond to an inevitable upswing in demand greatly decreases. It makes it almost inevitable that when the price does go up with demand it will be even higher then the previous surge. 

Another consequence, less understood, will be the inevitable rise in a new generation of Gulf-based jihadis.  Despite popular myths regarding who actually joins the global jihadist movement, it is precisely the bored, educated middle class kid, who is targeted for recruitment.  With a significant economic downturn in the regopn, these kids will have no job prospects.  Some will seek jihad in any number of today's active fronts.

Terrorist activity is a lagging indicator of global economic stability.  During the global energy malaise of the 1990s we saw a great influx of young, educated, mostly middle class men, seeking jihad action in any number of regional conflicts, like Kashmir and Afghanistan.  Those young men became very dangerous to US interests in the early 00's. 

Now there appears to be a perfect storm of circumstances that could be a another breeding ground for terrorism.  The economic downturn will leave many young Gulf men -- just now coming of age -- unemployed, and thus with the incentive to join the global jihad.  A protracted situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan will no doubt attract many young men interested in the training and, quite frankly, looking for a little adventure.  Add to that the inconsistent and almost half-hearted approach to managing a counter-jihad message, and you have a toxic mix that will inevitably produce more young jihadis, not less.  We probably won't feel the affects of this young generation for at least five years, perhaps a decade, but there will be effects, much like September 11th itself.

Is Bin Laden Just the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer?

I read this post by Douglas Farah the other day, and couldn't help but hear Phil Hartman say, "Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I'm just a caveman, your world frightens me.."

The idea that this pre-modern personality is sitting back on his safehouse chaise and fussing over his relevancy just smacks of post-modern analysis.  Now, I'm not saying Farah is right or wrong here. For all I know, Bin Laden is some preening narcissist who does worry about whether al-Shabbab cares about him.  However, the idea of Bin Laden pondering his relevancy just seems odd when you consider the fact that he has the full might of American military power attempting to kill him these past eight years.

He's not a metrosexual, folks.  He doesn't get his nails done, and he's not toking some weed, looking up at the stars, and thinkin' about God and the universe and stuff.  He's more "average medieval cleric"  than "unfrozen caveman lawyer."

He used to be a wealthy, pampered jetsetter, but now he's the new Old Man of the Mountain.

Master and Servant

Crossroads Arabia links to a Gulf News report on the public confession of AQAP leader Mohamed al-Awfi.  

Riyadh: Mohammad Al Oufi, the surrendered field commander of Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, has disclosed about the plots and plans prepared by intelligence agencies of some foreign countries to strike the Kingdom's oil installations.

If we're to take this report at face value then apparently the Iranians have successfully insinuated themselves into the Salafist-Jihadist movement from Hamas to Al Qaeda.  I'll be honest: I'm skeptical.  The sources for this in particular report appear to be all government operated, and the confession itself could have been acquired through torture or threats.  Gregory has many more reasons to be skeptical.  Iranian influence is so strong within the movement that apparently they are dictating Al Qaeda operations? Er, okay.

As of late, Iranians have been accused of arming and supporting numerous Salafist-Jihadist groups (all Sunni, if you didn't know).  Sure, it's possible.  As the old saying goes: the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  Iranians have mastered this strategy.  It's on display in Gaza right now.  However, the perfunctory nature of the accusation in this case doesn't fit into the usual knot of cash, oil, personalities, foreign interests, theological influences, and tribal culture complexities that characterizes practically every ongoing geopolitical issue in the Gulf. 

Regardless, if true, doesn't this then constitute an opportunity for our military and intel leadership to use this cozy relationship in order to undermine the credibility and sincerity of the global Salafist-Jihadist movement (MB, AQ, HAMAS, other groups) in its entirety?  After all, it would be hard for them to raise  the black flag of Sunni-centered jihad when they're actually slaves or hired hands (which one is worse?)  to Shiite masters.

75 Salafist-Jihadist

I came across an Almasry Alyoum article last week that claims that seventy-five Salafist-Jihadists were arrested in Egypt while media outlets were focused on Israeli actions in Gaza.

The detainees were arrested last January 10 from Heliopolis, Ein Shams, al-Zaitoun, and Al-Matar Sheraton. They have been imprisoned in Abu Zabal Prison after being interrogated by in the headquarters of the security forces affiliated to the Ministry of Interior.
 
Five detainees have been recently released, the report said, adding that the defendants have been asked about their relation to bombs and websites having relation to Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. They have been also asked about their relation to the Islamic groups and attempts to blow up cafes and public places. The detainees denied all these accusations.
  

Seventy five may seem like a small number, but then again, contemporary Salafist-Jihadism has never been a mass movement. Even they fancy themselves a "vanguard." Besides, it doesn't take much to do lasting damage through terrorist attacks.  September 11th proved that.  I would guess, too, that ten enthusastic and talented young men could probably perform very effective dawah, recruiting new members and raising money for all kinds of causes and campaigns.

Rather than a social anomaly, these arrests could be indicative of a Salafist-Jihadist re-emergence in a part of the world where experts tell us it's dying. 

Just a reminder...

...that they never shut up.

An Address to the Muslims from Abû Qatâdah,

‘Umar ibn Mahmûd Abû ‘Umar

Commentary on the decision of the British House of Lords approving of the government rendering him to the Jordanian government.

 

http://tibyan.wordpress.com/2009/03/23/an-address-to-the-muslims-from-abu-qatadah-‘umar-ibn-mahmud-abu-‘umar/

It's a cult of personality that borders on idolatrous.  I recall the words of Abu Mu'sab al-Suri regarding this very same man:

"The youth adhere faithfully to their shaykhs, and attach a holiness and infallibility to them."  (Lia, p. 188)

Keywords, Anyone

I recently did a copy and paste from the Keywords field of an Archive<dot>org record. Keyword lists like the one below hint at the user's (ie, the online jihadi's) original intentions for sharing the file, such as their intended audience or purpose, and hint at their command of English. This collection is unusual, because it reflects accurate spelling and coupling of concepts that suggests this Archive user is a native English speaker.  Their UK-based yahoo account also suggests this, too.  

For context, see the file record here, http://www.archive.org/details/UsaCrusaders

USA Crusaders


"Fighting is prescribed for you & ye dislike it. But it is possible that ye dislike a thing which is good for you & that ye love a thing which is bad for you. But Allah knows & ye know not."(2.216)


Keywords: Allah God Creator Muhammad Mohammed Islam Deen Religion Muslim Holy Qur'an Quran Koran Recitation Recital Reciter Qari Revelation Mushaf Scripture Sunnah Jihad Fisabilillah Mujahid Mujahideen Islamic Army Awakening Revival Revivalism Revolution Salaf Salafi Pious Predecessors Khalifah Khilafah Fighting Battle War Conflict Jizya Shariah Sharia Law Resistance Nasheed True Truth Reality Fact Shaheed Shuhadah Martyr Ulema Sheikh Shaykh Scholar Mullah Osama Bin Laden Ayman Zawahiri Al-Qaeda Taliban Death Prophet Messenger Apostle Anbiyah Da'wah Naseeha Sahabah Victory Conquest Glory Crusades Crusaders Taghout Kafir Kufar Kufr Disbeliever Unbeliever Infidel Soldier Saracen Warrior Fighter Struggle Masjid Mosque Haraam Haramain Makkah Mecca Madinah Medina Nabawi Al-Quds Al-Aqsa Baitul Maqdis Jerusalem Palestine Iraq Afghanistan Chechnya Kashmir Gujarat Bosnia Somalia Algeria Ummah Brotherhood Imam Amir Leader General Commander Prisoner Captive Education Genocide Slaughter Massacre Israel America

Around the Web – “Extra Big A**” Edition

This edition of Around the Web is dedicated to my favorite movie.  “Now with more molecules!”

We start off with a bit of Tim, or more accurately, the excellent work of ICSR, Countering Online Radicalisation: A Strategy for Action.

Looking for nasheeds in Urdu? (Go ahead, admit it, I know you are) Well, look no further, http://bintulislam.wordpress.com/taranay/

Michael over at The Opposite End of China needs your help: Who is on his carpet?

Staying in the region, here are two posts on Islam in China: One on the Persian influence, and one on the cultural divide between Malay and Chinese Muslims

Reviewing the reviewer: Kilcullen’s review of a review of his book. (via SWJ)

What is it about HTS that makes functional academics go off their rockers?  Just asking.

Good news for Yanni’s evil twin, Ali al-Marri, and bad news for us:  Al-Marri detention case ended from (via SCOTUSBlog)

And then there’s this from MEMRI: An In-Depth Summary of Sayyid Imam's New Polemic against Al-Qaeda, 'Exposing the Exoneration'

That from BBC Monitoring (via Lexis-Nexis): Al-Arabiya programme on dispute between Al-Zarqawi's followers, Al-Maqdisi. BBC Monitoring International Reports (March 4, 2009)

Ulema matter.

So do jihadi forums.

A little polemic here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12662613/Shaykh-Albani-explains-why-we-should-ascribe-to-the-SalafusSalih

A little dawah guidance there: http://ii-muflihah.blogspot.com/2009/02/10-tips-for-muslim-activists-to-deal.html

Much needed skepticism (via Axe)

But much more needed here.  [Poor bloke.  He wasn’t a terrorist, just really good friends with Abu Zubaydah]

Found via Aaron: Jihadi video and auto-radicalisation: evidence from an exploratory YouTube study

The DORAS subject bibliography has links to more studies in this area, including interesting results from a search of “Islamic law.”

A review of The Islamist at Abu Muqawama, that includes this passage:

The image of easy going weed-smoking free love (Islamic style) Sufis has always appealed to some in the West. After 9/11, it has gained new supporters who see it as a “form of Islam that we can live with”. Quite a few Muslims seem to have become drawn to Sufistic approaches to Islam precisely because it seems more West-friendly.
 
But politics is not the right reason to adopt or support an ascetic and esoteric religious path. It’s also misguided. Sufis can fight when they want to.

More nuance here with an article on Egypt’s evolving Islamism

Meanwhile, Ganesh Sitaraman advocates a reconsideration of the laws of war. (via SWJ) [Not a bad idea]

Two from the current issue of Studies in Conflict and Terrorism

Fighting Cosmic Warriors: Lessons from the First Seven Years of the Global War on Terror
Author: Heather S. Gregg a
Volume 32, Issue 3 March 2009 , pages 188 – 208

The 9/11 Attacks—A Study of Al Qaeda's Use of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
Author: Gaetano Joe Ilardi a
Volume 32, Issue 3 March 2009 , pages 171 - 187

In the OSINT corner

My post on the Revelation

A new book to get the OSINT juices flowing: The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing by Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat

Something called Elastic Lists, a new data-mining tool

And a new intel platform for the EU? (via IntelliBriefs)

"French military intelligence and European security agencies appear keen to acquire WebLab, a platform designed by EADS to extract and disseminate all types of information"

And now for something completely different

Honoring Jacques Barzun

Reviewing George Steiner

A Perfectly Good Hunch

Rusty at JawaReport suggests that Bin Laden could be surfing the web, because of  a reference to al-Maqdisi's website in the current audio. 

I'm in a hurry as I'm doing this from the airport, so I won't go into all the implications, but the first one should be obvious: bin Laden has online access, wherever he is.

A cave with broadband? It's possible. A generator and a satellite uplink is all you need.

But Ockham's razor suggests the simplest and most obvious explanation is the most likely: that bin Laden is somewhere with preexisting internet access, like say, a penthouse apartment in Karachi.

And if he's surfing the web, it may be that he's in a place where web surfing is commonplace, like a big city.  Rusty suggests Karachi.  However, it could be argued that Bin Laden is just working from second hand briefings or printouts from the site, and not from personal experience surfing the site (most of the site's docs include its URL).  I saw this all the time when I was a CT analyst.  Senior government managers whose extensive web experience included the whole of SEND and REPLY in Outlook and the occasional fantasy football site would "brief" an audience on this or that program's web tools.  Lord help his briefer <ahem> if the guy actually received a question from the audience. 

I still support the good doctor's hunch here, because it's mine, too.  AQ's media production has inadvertently offered tantalizing hints to Bin Laden and Zawahiri's whereabouts.  For instance, the little birdie singing in this 2006 Zawahiri video suggests a backyard bird (one whose song is so familiar that the audio guy didn't "hear" it).  A backyard bird, like a sparrow or a wagtail of some kind, suggests a city where you're more likely to see backyards and enclosed gardens.   There was also a more recent example from a Dr. Z video that included the sound of passing trucks.  Not much, I know, but something.

My hunch goes as far as to suggest that at least one of these fine fellows is watching al-Jazeera from a safe house in Rawalpindi or another Eastern stronghold of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba.  More than one AQ operative has been picked up in this region.  It makes sense from a logistical perspective, too.  One of the group's leaders is working the tribal areas, building and maintaining those much-needed relationships.  Meanwhile the other is covering the group's flank maintaining the much-needed relationships with the Pakistan government's sympathetic corps.  Regardless, I doubt either of them is in a cave.  There's just too much work to do. 

I know, I know.  It's just a hunch on a blog, and worth about as much as you may assume it's worth.  Who knows we could be tracking them right now, just collecting intel on their movements and connections.  It happens.  I still remember one of the funniest lines an FBI SA (and former NYPD detective) ever said to me regarding his vile, money-laundering, terror-supporting target:  "that guy doesn't flush the toilet without me knowing it."   However, I don't think we would sit on such a target for too long.  The political implications are just too great.

Not Weird At All

Kristan at Sources and Methods recently spoke to students of library and information science in New York:

One of the most interesting things was to have a chance to compare notes with what amounted to some really great OSINT collectors. Not sure if you could hire any of these people (there is a job, apparently, waiting for most if not all of them when they are done -- the average age of a librarian is close to 50 and some enormous number of them are retiring in the next 36 months) but, boy, if you did, you would acquire some unique and very impressive talent.

Kristan isn't the first to have what I call "the Revelation." This is the moment when a career IC manager notices that librarians -- those whose career it is to manage and exploit information -- are in fact good at managing and exploiting information.  I saw the Revelation occur numerous times when I was a CT analyst.  No matter where I worked I was eventually known as "She Who Can Find Stuff."

With every Revelation comes the increasing awareness within the IC that librarians have something to offer.  It's my hope that eventually OSINT and the unique skill set required to do it well will be taken seriously enough that its practitioners are recognized as the professionals they are. 

For those unfamiliar with my creds: I hold a MSLS from Catholic University (1995).  I also wrote a book on the future of the profession in 1999-2000 entitled, Developing Information Leaders: Harnessing the Talents of Generation X.

Aw Jeez

Aw jeez.  I don't recall whether I posted this already, and right now I'm too lazy to check.

From: Where else?
Description:

إن هذا الكتاب محاولة لوضع معالم المدرسة النبوية العسكرية من خلال دراسة الغزوات والسرايا والبعوث دراسة تحليلية دقيقة مفصلة تستنبط الدروس والحكم والأحكام، وتقدم الشواهد القولية والعملية عليها، مع الاستدلال والتعزيز والتوضيح.

More at:
http://www.archive.org/details/mnamna

And the Google "translation":

This book attempt to establish the parameters of the Prophet's school through the study of military incursions and house and Mission accurate detailed analytical study and develop lessons and governance provisions, and provide anecdotal evidence and practical, with reasoning and reinforcement and clarification.

The title of the book: the Prophet's military school
Author: d. Mohammad Abdul Kader Obovas
Publisher: Dar Al-Furqan
Number Edition: First Edition 1413 e 1993
The number of volumes: 1
Pages: 310
File Size: 5.3 MB

Countering Conventional Wisdom

International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence's new report challenges the conventional wisdom on internet radicalization. 

Tim has full coverage of its release.

This CNet article gives you an idea of the report's primary thesis:

That's not to say that extremists don't ever use Web sites to reinforce their messages but that "self-radicalization and self-recruitment via the Internet with little or no relation to the outside world rarely happens, and there is no reason to suppose that this situation will change in the near future."

It also found that "much of the jihadist Web presence was about 'preaching to the choir'" and that "it is largely ineffective when it comes to drawing in new recruits."

After examining a variety of ways to block, filter, or remove offensive sites, the report found that "many of the filtering technologies that are currently in use are either too crude or too expensive to operate" and that they fail to deal with the conversational part of the Internet." Even though it may be possible to "remove, filter or hide content that is available from relatively static Web sites," such efforts will be largely ineffective when it comes to "chat rooms, instant messaging, virtual worlds and networking sites." Like the rest of us, it seems as if terrorists have discovered Web 2.0.

Sheikh Energizer al-Bunny

I read this Telegraph article the other day that reports on Sheikh Omar Bakri's recent "address" to a "conference" in the UK...from his current location in Lebanon. You might recall that Bakri fled the UK for Lebanon after the 7/7 bombings.  Now he's back (if only as teleconferenced voice), causing trouble once again. 

Bakri told his followers: "The existence of the Islamic state is a necessity for justice to be established, a necessity for the people in order to keep away from personal desire and greed. "I believe the way forward is Islam. It is time to go back to basics. I believe Islam is the future."

The conference was organised by Bakri's right-hand man Anjem Choudary. the former head of the extremist group Al Muhajiroun. A panel of three other speakers also spoke at the gathering to mark 85 years since the Islamic state Khilasah was abolished by Kemal Ataturk in 1924.

If British officials thought they may have been given a quick bargain by his self-imposed skedaddle, they've paid a heavy price anyway.  His indefatigable efforts to sow his Salafist-Jihadist seeds continues to bear ugly, rancid fruit.  And he'll continue to sow his evil seeds, because his dawah is the primary purpose of his jihad.  It's spiritual, not ideological.  He'll talk until he's dead, and then all those videos and fatwas will live on after him.

In other words, he'll never shut up.

UPDATE: The Pest (http://revolution.thabaat.net/?p=1022) just reminded me that the US has it's own Sheikh Bunny: Anwar al-Awlaki.

Out the Door

P. Philly may have been accurate this year, but even six weeks will pass.  I'm out the house the rest of the weekend, folks.  Have fun, and I hope your weekend weather will be as good as this:

Three Bagatelles

I had three random thoughts this week.  Let me rephrase that: I had three random thoughts this week that you may find interesting. There were plenty of others, but I'm sure you could care less about my condo decorating angst or a list of Manhattan food joints for Ubiwar.  So, in no particular order:

1. For AQ central the 2002-2004 time frame may be interpreted as the group's reformative era. 

Background: The Cairo bombing last week had me doing some interesting collection work, and I came across this 2004 report by Reuven Paz, written soon after the 2004 Sinai bombings.   In it he translates a 2004 "analysis" piece published in Sawt al-Jihad that includes this passage:

- The Sinai attack was only the first of several forthcoming attacks in Egypt, and is part of a clear strategy approved by the Mujahidin in Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt. The Jihad in Iraq and Egypt should be viewed as the ropes to strengthen the Jihad in Arabia.
- The next steps are the beginning of Jihad in Arabia, namely Yemen and Kuwait on the one hand, and the unification of the North African Jihadi groups in Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and the Sudan, on the other.

Ever so brief commentary: It's a general statement, but it does appear to have a bit of prescience to it.  Zawahiri did work his turban off in subsequent years to see at least some of that come to fruition. This also dovetails with the two fatwas (WMDs and Petroleum), the emergence of al-Zarqawi (and their opportunities in Iraq), and other factors from the period.  It makes energy infrastructure attacks a key goal of whatever phase they are currently in.

2. Did anti-money laundering efforts after 9-11 lead AQ, and other radical Islamist groups like Hamas, to accept Iranian support?

Background: This is based on personal experience (briefly supporting money laundering cases at the FBI, and subsequent curiosity-driven research), but until Israel's incursion into Gaza, I was unaware that Iran had infiltrated so deeply into Hamas' logistical and operational framework. 

Ever so brief commentary: I never saw evidence of this influence.  Granted, my access and experiences were limited, but things Iranian would have stood out. They weren't there.  However, they are there now.  Iranian influence inside Egypt was a personal surprise. I recall a few week's back seeing an image from an Ihkwan sponsored rally in Egypt where some participants were holding up signs with Nasrallah's image on them.  Could the possibility of a rising Shia influence within certain segments of the Salafi movement create irreparable fitna?

3. Is there another Peninsula plot afoot?

Background: A recent posting of key AQAP docs to Archive<dot>org mirrors two other occasions (see below) when the same or similar documents were posted without much context.  In both cases, massive arrests followed within weeks. 

Ever so brief commentary: It's hard to say why this material is getting posted.  I can't identify the intended audience, and I don't have the context.   However, experience from 2007 (Bin Rashid's fatwa was reposted on July 31) and 2008 (AQAP material was posted in March, I believe) suggests to me that this kind of posting has operation qualities to it. It could be a signal.  Is it possible another round of arrests may be on the horizon? Or another attempt at attacking energy infrastructure?  Last year's massive round of arrests included suspects who entered the country under cover of Hajj pilgrims.  The Hajj happened in December, if I'm not mistaken.  Time will tell.

A Threat to Saudi Diplomatic Missions in Pakistan?

I know, I know, the source is a Pakistani newspaper, but it's still interesting.

An Interior Ministry source said that the Saudi embassy had received a message through an email in which Al Qaeda had threatened to target Saudi Airlines’ offices and other important installations. The source said the Saudi embassy had written to the Pakistani Interior Ministry about Al Qaeda’s threat. It also said that External Ministry additional secretary Imran Khan Al Sherazi had requested the Interior Ministry to immediately increase security at Saudi installations across the country.

Patience

...while I figure out how to use Facebook.  In the meantime, I'm quite entertained by Thomas' reports of Abu Muhammed al-Maqdisi's tribulations.