I continue to see reports of arrests and plot disruptions throughout the MENA region, suggesting an open season both on AQ operatives and their plots against foreigners, military assets, and energy infrastructure. Last week’s news of Al Qaida arrests in Saudi Arabia belie continued reports of the group’s waning influence on the Peninsula.
Clearly, there are still operational and logistical cells plotting attacks in Saudi Arabia, and considering the economic slow down in the region, expect reports to increase in the coming years as some educated young men seek spiritual fulfillment in the liminal life of violent jihad. Al –Qaida saw a boom in the 1990s when Gulf economies were struggling to employ their educated middle class young men, and they may just experience a forth stage or re-emergence in the next five years.
Recent arrests also follow a pattern that goes back to 2005 with the late-August disruption of a near-operational plot targeting energy infrastructure in Ad Dammam. The pattern includes disruptive arrests preceding official announcements of thwarted ambitious attacks usually during late summer, some perhaps to coincide with the September 11th anniversary. It happened in 2006, 2007, and 2008.
To put it into perspective a second, 2006-2008 saw a dramatic decline in al-Qaida’s operational capabilities in Saudi Arabia, and yet they maintained enough local capacity to plot and support large-scale attacks. Now that al-Qaida’s Yemen branch has established itself as a serious player in regional conflicts, it’s building its operational capacity in the region, including Egypt and Gaza. Though I haven’t seen much reporting on it, AQAP could easily be the strategic source for recent reports of AQ activity in Gaza and the Sinai plots. I think I recall a recent statement by the current AQAP leader announcing their intent to infiltrate Gaza. I take their intentions seriously, and assume that they have tried and met with some success.
Taking AQAP’s operations in Yemen out of the picture for a moment, 2009 has seen several CT arrests on the Peninsula and Sinai. Often brief reports they are a background noise barely heard through the cacophony of news from Afghanistan, Iraq, and other regions. Some of the reports are vague, but are easily associated with al-Qaida, others are more ambiguous and could be explained as criminal activity (they’re in gray). Notice, too, that there have been various reports of arrests and plots against US military assets and personnel throughout MENA, suggesting that al-Qaida may have been plotting an attack on military and naval assets.
(April 2009) Bahrain says arrests two for planning terror acts
See also, Bahrain Announces Arrest of Terror Cell
And, US ships 'target of terror plotters'
If I'm not mistaken, AQY once published in its "magazine" a strategic article advancing maritime terrorism as a targeting option....
(April 2009) Fears Of Al-Qaida Inroads In Yemen
(May 2009) In Saudi Arabia, Shots Fired At Vehicle Carrying Foreigners
(June 2009) Uncertainty Surrounds the Arrest of al-Qaeda Financier in Yemen
(June-July 2009) Another one bites the dust
(July 2009) Kuwait Arrests 5 Al Qaida Suspects
(July 2009) Egypt holds 26 over suspected Qaeda plot on Suez Canal
See also, Briton arrested in Egypt over terror attack that killed 17-year-old girl
And, Suspected terrorists arrested for plotting Egypt attack
(July 2009) -- Tunisia arrests 9 men over US assassination plot
