The border region around En Amenas has been the scene of both criminal and AQIM-related activity for quite some time. In my day job, I call this activity microinstability: very select regions or localities in a country that experience extended periods of persistent threat activity. Algeria has a perfect example. Despite relatively stable public and social life (for a dictatorship) in most of the country, Tizi Ouzou remains one of the most dangerous localities in North Africa. In order to identify these patches of hell, an analyst needs to persistently study local activity, such as local crime and CT incident reporting. There's nothing innovative about the methods of research and analysis here. Rather, the innovation is how the analyst employs the information.
The few of my (few) readers around this long weekend might appreciate this list of terrorism and CT incidents for Illizi Province, Algeria for the year 2011. I'll get to 2012 later today or tomorrow.
Terrorism and Counterterrorism Activity Reported in Illizi Province, Algeria for 2011
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12 March |
2 AQIM members killed and 2 detained after they attempted to steal trucks and other vehicles belonging to an international energy company operating in the region |
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24 March |
An AQIM suspect wearing a suicide belt was killed at the border checkpoint in Debdab |
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04 April |
1 AQIM suspect at the Debdab border as he tried to detonate a suicide belt at the border checkpoint |
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22 April |
Three AQIM killed at the Libyan border, and ammunition caches retrieved |
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20 June |
2 AQIM suspects killed, 2 arrested in Debdab |
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06 September |
Algerian security forces initiated an operation to identify AQIM ambush locations and arms caches along provincial oil transit routes. |
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12 September |
A group called Movement of the Sons of Algeria for Islamic Justice (MFSJ) accused the government of breaking a 2008 agreement. According to one local report, the MFSJ was established in 2007, and attacked oil facility at En Amenas |
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13 September |
El-Khabar reported that energy companies operating in southern Algeria were increasing their security measures. The measures were in response to a suspect AQIM plot to target energy facilities in complex attacks |
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18 September |
Algerian security forces captured 2 AQIM suspects. Local reports suggest they were reconnoitering military facilities in the region. |
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18 September |
Forces recovered a suspected AQIM cache of explosives along the Niger border |
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On 09 October |
2 AQIM suspects killed during a shootout with Algerian security forces |
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08 November |
35 AQIM suspects smuggling small arms across the borderwere arrested near Djanet |
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08 November |
2 AQIM suspects killed in Djanet |
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14 November |
2 AQIM suspects killed and 5 arrested near the Libyan border as the attempted to smuggle weapons. According to one local report, the suspects hailed from Mali and Libya as well as Algeria |
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12 December |
8 AQIM suspects were captured in Djanet, allegedly smuggling weapons across the border |
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25 December |
5 AQIM suspects killed in a shootout with local Algerian forces in Djanet |
