Making Sense of Jihad

A Closer Look at Microinstability in Algeria, Part 2

As I blogged yesterday, here is the 2012 list of AQIM-related events in Illizi province.  My news sources didn't have reports for June or July, and so the set is incomplete. Still, I think it shows a qualitiative change in the militant activity in Illizi between 2011 and 2012: more arms caches, more reports of cross border training.  Though it's certainly not enough information to make solid analytical conclusions, the information hints at a consolidation of AQIM/militant operations (possibly leadership) in Libya, challenging the idea that northern Mali is AQIM's "base."

Terrorism and Counterterrorism Activity Reported in Illizi Province, Algeria for 2012

04 January	An unknown number of suspected AQIM members were arrested at the Niger border.  A local report notes that the militants were crossing the border with hundreds of small arms and light weapons
17 January	3 AQIM operatives kidnapped the governor of the Illizi province in Debdab. The militants released a political aide and a driver who were with the governor at the time. They were released a day later
22 January	2 AQIM suspected of weapons trafficking were arrested near the Libyan border
06 February	7 AQIM suspects were arrested in several locations in Algeria, including Ghardaïa, Illizi, Adrar and Tamanrasset provinces.  The suspects were alleged to belong to a weapons smuggling ring
20 February	A local report of a buried weapons cache recovered near In Amenas. The cache allegedly contained: 15 SA-24s and 24 SA-7s
07 March	7 AQIM suspects were arrested In Amenas
13 March	1 AQIM member was arrested at an unnamed location in Illizi province. One local report notes that he confessed to receiving training at an AQIM camp in southern Libya
15 April	A shootout in Djanet, along the border with Libya, led to the arrest of 2 AQIM suspects
08 August	4 AQIM suspects, including one Libyan, were arrested at an unnamed location in Illizi
30 September	27 AQIM members were arrested at an unnamed location in Illizi province.  According to local reporting, the suspects were part of a recruitment and training cell that sent some members to Libya, specifically Bani Walid and Benghazi

 

A Closer Look at Microinstability in Algeria

The border region around En Amenas has been the scene of both criminal and AQIM-related activity for quite some time.  In my day job, I call this activity microinstability: very select regions or localities in a country that experience extended periods of persistent threat activity. Algeria has a perfect example. Despite relatively stable public and social life (for a dictatorship) in most of the country, Tizi Ouzou remains one of the most dangerous localities in North Africa.  In order to identify these patches of hell, an analyst needs to persistently study local activity, such as local crime and CT incident reporting.  There's nothing innovative about the methods of research and analysis here.  Rather, the innovation is how the analyst employs the information. 

The few of my (few) readers around this long weekend might appreciate this list of terrorism and CT incidents for Illizi Province, Algeria for the year 2011.  I'll get to 2012 later today or tomorrow.

Terrorism and Counterterrorism Activity Reported in Illizi Province, Algeria for 2011

12 March	2 AQIM members killed and 2 detained after they attempted to steal trucks and other vehicles belonging to an international energy company operating in the region
24 March	An AQIM suspect wearing a suicide belt was killed at the border checkpoint in Debdab
04 April	1 AQIM suspect at the Debdab border as he tried to detonate a suicide belt at the border checkpoint
22 April	Three AQIM killed at the Libyan border, and ammunition caches retrieved
20 June	2 AQIM suspects killed, 2 arrested in Debdab
06 September	Algerian security forces initiated an operation to identify AQIM ambush locations and arms caches along provincial oil transit routes.
12 September	A group called Movement of the Sons of Algeria for Islamic Justice (MFSJ) accused the government of breaking a 2008 agreement. According to one local report, the MFSJ was established in 2007, and attacked oil facility at En Amenas
13 September	El-Khabar reported that energy companies operating in southern Algeria were increasing their security measures.  The measures were in response to a suspect AQIM plot to target energy facilities in complex attacks
18 September	Algerian security forces captured 2 AQIM suspects. Local reports suggest they were reconnoitering military facilities in the region.
18 September	Forces recovered a suspected AQIM cache of explosives along the Niger border
On 09 October	2 AQIM suspects killed during a shootout with Algerian security forces
08 November	35 AQIM suspects smuggling small arms across the borderwere arrested near Djanet
08 November	2 AQIM suspects killed in Djanet
14 November	2 AQIM suspects killed and 5 arrested near the Libyan border as the attempted to smuggle weapons.  According to one local report, the suspects hailed from Mali and Libya as well as Algeria
12 December	8 AQIM suspects were captured in Djanet, allegedly smuggling weapons across the border
25 December	5 AQIM suspects killed in a shootout with local Algerian forces in Djanet

 

 

American Salafist-Jihadism Emerges

Despite numerous arrests, convictions, reports of recruitment activities, and general vile behavior, the United States' small but very vocal Salafist-Jihadist (SJ) community saw its first inspired terrorist attack on US soil last week at Fort Hood.  Numerous British and US reports paint a picture of a man who was active in this small, mostly virtual community.  As Jarret (and Jihadica and Jawa Report) report, Hasan's violence has been met with elation in the US SJ community and on English language jihadi forums:

Bottom line up front: On the English-language, pro AQ websites, Nidal Malik Hasan’s attack at Ft Hood is being hailed as a victory for Islam and al-Qaida. The participants involved in the discussion see this as the opening shot in what they hope to be a long and bloody war in the United States.

These reports also highlight the key role of Anwar al-Awlaki, an American scholar of Islamic law who was once touted in the local press as a young, moderate leader of Northern Virginia's burgeoning suburban Muslim community.  This while the FBI was investigating his connections to several of the 9-11 hijackers. Interestingly, anyone who has been monitoring the US-based SJ community was well aware of the centrality of Awlaki's role in it.  After he fled the United States, he landed in Yemen and has been running an "American"-language blog (written in prefect idiomatic American English) since 2007-2008 (I'm working from memory here).  His posts, audio and video commentaries, and fatawa, were prominently displayed throughout the US-based SJ community.  That he has only now come to the awareness of many in the military and intelligence communities, is more evidence of the appalling mediocrity and endemic bureaucratic indifference that defines the policy and analysis industries here in Washington, DC.

Since it emerged in earnest back in 2005-6 with a collection of blogs and websites, America's SJ virtual community has expanded its presence to include active members of Scribd, Archive.org, and Youtube.  However, it appears to be more talk than action.  Reports following the arrest of Tarek Mehanna and 2 associates, make this small circle of terrorist wannabes appear to rather hapless.  Most of the global SJ action remains in the Middle East and South Asia.  Arabic and Urdu are still the primary languages of SJ ideology.  The US network's only real religious authority has been the commentary and fatawa of al-Awlaki.

The Fort Hood attack has changed all this, however.  It's clear that Hasan was very active in the US SJ community.  He communicated with al-Awlaki, and there are now reports that he was talking to others as well.  His 2007 power point presentation on Islam is the crystallization of the SJ ideology, expressed in American English, intended for an American audience.

There is good news here, if you can call it that.  Hasan's attack may have happened too soon in the SJ community's development.  The community still lacks authoritative heft it needs to be taken seriously inside the global movement (like a "Blind Sheikh").  By "coming of age" too soon, it may doom itself to jihadi caricature.   That may change in the next 5-10 years as recently convicted Salafist-Jihadis are released from prison, having had many years to study and delve deeper into the justifications for violence.  It's hard to predict what if any will be the impact of this cadre of radical American Muslims with prison cred, but I can practically guarantee that it will shock our policy and intelligence communities.

Inevitable: American-Flagged Ship Seized

AP and other news agencies are reporting that Somali pirates have seized a US-flagged ship off the coast of Somalia.  I need to head out for a lunch meeting, but check back later for updates on blog commentary.   Just a thought:  the US-government's policy to never negotiate may not be as important being that the ship is owned by a Danish company, and they may negotiate and pay whatever handsome sum is agreed upon.  More later.

UPDATE: Phew (sort of).

Eaglespeak's comment here should cause some concern for the Navy and insurers:

It may be that, just as some Somali pirates have shifted their operations to areas where the various naval forces are not out in force, they are also adopting new techniques to increase the pool of available ships they can successfully attack. Pirates in the Strait of Malacca have long been boarding vessels of this type and at speeds greater than those the Somali pirates. It may be there is some expertise being shared .

If this is the case then who is doing the sharing, and how is it being shared?

Also, the USNI Blog notes pirates' ever-expanding range:

Attacks still occur primarily in the Gulf of Aden but a quick glance seems to reveal more attacks four months into 2009 off the eastern coasts of Kenya and Somalia than in all of 2008.

Around the Web - Catch Up Edition

I was shocked to notice that I hadn't placed Jane Novak's essential Armies of Liberation blog on my list of Reliable Sources.  It's there now, as is CT analyst Jarrett Brachman's website.

Registan.net has also been added. It focuses on news from Central Asia news.

Mountainrunner has a list of must-read books, and one of them stood out for the purposes of this blog (and this blogger):  Al-Qaida's Doctrine for Insurgency: Abd al-Aziz al-Muqrin's "A Practical Course for Guerrilla War"

So apparently Sheikh Qaradawi's IslamOnline.net has opened a DC office.  The first question that pops into my mind: who's funding this?  Second question: was the location in the National Press Building, intentional?  The Press building is about five blocks from FBI's HQ, and perhaps 5 or 6 from the OEOB.

The Mumbai Terror Attacks Dossier (via The Hindu)

And a Mumbai summary report. (via RAND)

Tell us how you really think, Thomas.  (excellent post at jihadica on the plague of bad psy-ops)

Bemoaning the problem of too many fatawa at Al Masry al Ayoum

The health of the king matters (via The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

The inevitability of new leadership in Egypt also matters. (via the Shack)

Also via the Shack: Brotherhood is planning to participate in 2010 Parliamentary elections in Egypt.  Let's get ready to rumble!

A short history of Islamic banking (via Asharq Alawsat)

OSINT Corner

A new source for internet journalism: Global Post, http://www.globalpost.com/

Three from Zero Intelligence Agents

The IC and 'Knowlege Ecosystems'

How Will Modern Warfare Change Academic Reserach?

Political Networks Working Papers Archive

Yemen Around the Web

Today's attack against the US embassy in Sana'a was ambitious compared to most al-Qaida attacks against fixed targets.  Many of the reports are saying now that the attackers intended to break through perimeter security, storm the facility, and take hostages.  Al-Qaida has rarely undertaken this type of coordinated attack against the hardened target.  The 2003-05 activity in Saudi Arabia included similar attacks like the civilian compounds of May and November 03, but even these weren't as hardened as a US embassy.  There are a few others, but I emphasize the "few" here.  Al Qaida has often chosen carbomb-created carnage over long-term systematic strategy and occassional coordinated attacks. 

What could be going on?  Desperation?  I doubt it.  This attack required coordination (ground commands), reconaissance, and training.  It's not the signature of a group on the ropes.  Is it a sign of things to come?  I'l have to think about that.  Al Qaida's Yemen emir (leader) has been far more strategic in his timing and targeting than, say, Zarqawi, his more famous (and very dead) Iraqi counterpart.  They have focused on economic jihad, targeting oil installations, tourism sites, and symbols of foreign (ie non-Muslim) power like the US embassy.

Long War Journal has the best report.

Armies of Liberation has a post on these little known Yemeni Islamist groups (and posts about the attack here and here).

Meanwhile, US government spokespeople are seeing "signs" of Al Qaida. 

RAND's Data

The Homeland Security Digital Library blog notes that RAND has pulled its terrorism incident database off the web.

New article on Morocco

The Evolution of Jihadist Terrorism in Morocco

Authors: Rogelio Alonso - Dr Rogelio Alonso; Marcos Garca Rey
Published in:  Terrorism and Political Violence, Volume 19, Issue 4 December 2007 , pages 571 - 592

Abstract
Over the last few years, Moroccans have been disproportionately involved in jihadist terrorism. Morocco has been increasingly identified as one of the largest producers of terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout Europe. This article examines the factors behind the emergence of jihadist terrorism in Morocco, and how this terrorist threat has gone beyond this country's borders. Three factors have contributed to this development: the influence of global jihad on potential Moroccan jihadists; the growing Islamization of the country; and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. In analyzing these variables, special attention will be paid to the Casablanca terrorist attacks on May 16, 2003, marking the debut of suicide terrorism in Morocco. The article will also examine the principal counterterrorist initiatives Morocco has implemented in response to this threat.

AQ in Yemen's Economic Jihad

Al Qaida's affiliate in Yemen claimed responsibility for a "failed" attack on an oil refinery located near Aden last week:

Three blasts were heard on Friday at the refinery in the southern port city of Aden, officials said.

"Al Qaeda Organisation in the Arabian Peninsula -- Yemen Soldiers Brigades -- carried out the blessed operation with three mortar shells ... on the refinery used by Yemen's despot to supply fuel to the Crusaders (Western states) in their war against Islam," the group said on an Islamist website.

It's just another incident where the group targets one of two key economic sectors within Yemen: energy and tourism. 

The extent of the group's ability to recruit, train, fund, and execute attacks is not widely understood using just open source information, but its emphasis on targeting energy infrastructure sites in Yemen does not bode well for energy sites in other areas of the Arabian Peninsula.  It would be easy for an AQ cell -- some members now "veterans" of Iraq and/or Afghanistan --  to draw lessons learned from the Yemen-based economic jihad and combine it with paramilitary skills honed in other parts of the world. 

Yemen may become the proving ground for Al Qaida's next big attack (or attempted attack) on the Arabian Peninsula.

Bringing the Brothers Together

Animesh Roul at Counterterrorism Blog reports that the Indian government suspects an alliance of several Islamist groups could have pulled off the May 13 attacks in Jaipur City.  The possible alliance between Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT), SIMI, and Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islami (HuJI) would be another example of Al Qaeda-associated elements (in this case LT) building tactical alliances with other Islamist groups. 

Even though many analysts see signs of Al Qaeda weakening (ie, its losses in Iraq), I suggest in my upcoming Sentinel article that they have been very successful at bringing disparate radical Islamist groups together over the past few years under their control.   After decades of jihadi leaders bemoaning the lack of unity among the groups, including the 2007 "Covenant" published by Hamid al-Ali, this consolidation actually points to a long-term strategy of retreat and retrenchment that follows the example of the Mohammed after he and his companions fled to Medina. 

Far from retreating or losing ground they appear to be consolidating global jihad "assets" under their control, and Jaipur City may become an example of this retrenchment in action. 

North Africa Threat Continues

Olivier Guitta at Counterterrorism Blog notes that Morocco is now under high alert after a possible "dry run."  Add Morocco to a growing list of countries in North Africa on high alert.  With Al Qaeda's current use of the 11th day for their operations, it may just be a jittery Sunday throughout the region.

UPDATE: London Times reports on the ongoing threat to Europe from Al Qaeda's growing presence and capabilities in Africa.

Intelligence sources contacted by The Times in London, France, Spain, Germany and the US as well as in North Africa show a remarkable uniformity when describing the threat posed by AQIM. At present it is not the size of its membership that is causing alarm – one Western intelligence source said that its hardcore numbered about 200 fighters – but the speed with which it has reorganised itself in a region emerging from a conflict that has claimed up to 200,000 lives in the past decade.

While it has continued to attack Algerian forces AQIM has widened its range of targets – including Westerners – using tactics honed in Iraq: suicide attacks and a variety of bombing techniques. “They are definitely growing in sophistication and, taken as a whole, this presents us with a very disturbing picture,” the source said.

“They’ve done all this in a relatively short time, some of it through the use of the internet where they can organise, download training videos, recruit via encrypted forums.

“There are disturbing trends that suggest they have been training others from both the Sahel and the Maghreb countries: Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Senegal, Mauritania and Burkina Faso.”

Those who die at their hands

In Brynjar Lia's new biography of Abu Musab al-Suri there are numerous passages related Al-Suri's work in Algeria during the civil war.  Reading about al-Suri's efforts to keep the various jihadi groups on the right path, I was reminded of the story of the seven monks of Tibhirine slaughtered by GIA leader Jamal Zaytuni in 1996.  As a CT analyst you spend so much time analyzing the terrorists, it's perhaps easy to forget the victims. 

GIA thugs warned the seven French Trappist monks to abandon their mission and leave their monastery.  They  continued their work, knowing full well that they could be targeted.  The superior of the monastery even sent a last will and testament to his family.

LAST TESTAMENT
Christian de Cherge

If it should happen one day—and it could be today—that I become a victim of the terrorism which now seems ready to encompass all the foreigners living in Algeria, I would like my community, my Church, my family, to remember that my life was given to God and to this country. I ask them to accept that the One Master of all life was not a stranger to this brutal departure. I ask them to pray for me: for how could I be found worthy of such an offering? I ask them to be able to associate such a death with the many other deaths that were just as violent, but forgotten through indifference and anonymity.

My life has no more value than any other. Nor any less value. In any case, it has not the innocence of childhood. I have lived long enough to know that I share in the evil which seems, alas, to prevail in the world, even in that which would strike me blindly. I should like, when the time comes, to have a clear space which would allow me to beg forgiveness of God and of all my fellow human beings, and at the same time to forgive with all my heart the one who would strike me down.

I could not desire such a death. It seems to me important to state this. I do not see, in fact, how I could rejoice if this people I love were to be accused indiscriminately of my murder. It would be to pay too dearly for what will, perhaps, be called "the grace of martyrdom," to owe it to an Algerian, whoever he may be, especially if he says he is acting in fidelity to what he believes to be Islam. I know the scorn with which Algerians as a whole can be regarded. I know also the caricature of Islam which a certain kind of Islamism encourages. It is too easy to give oneself a good conscience by identifying this religious way with the fundamentalist ideologies of the extremists. For me, Algeria and Islam are something different; they are a body and a soul. I have proclaimed this often enough, I believe, in the sure knowledge of what I have received in Algeria, in the respect of believing Muslims—finding there so often that true strand of the Gospel I learned at my mother's knee, my very first Church.

My death, clearly, will appear to justify those who hastily judged me naive or idealistic: "Let him tell us now what he thinks of it!" But these people must realize that my most avid curiosity will then be satisfied. This is what I shall be able to do, if God wills—immerse my gaze in that of the Father, to contemplate with him his children of Islam just as he sees them, all shining with the glory of Christ, the fruit of his Passion, filled with the Gift of the Spirit, whose secret joy will always be to establish communion and to refashion the likeness, delighting in the differences.

For this life given up, totally mine and totally theirs, I thank God who seems to have wished it entirely for the sake of that joy in everything and in spite of everything. In this "thank you," which is said for everything in my life from now on, I certainly include you, friends of yesterday and today, and you my friends of this place, along with my mother and father, my brothers and sisters and their families—the hundred-fold granted as was promised!

And you also, the friend of my final moment, who would not be aware of what you were doing. Yes, for you also I wish this "thank you"—and this <adieu>—to commend you to the God whose face I see in yours.

And may we find each other, happy "good thieves," in Paradise, if it pleases God, the Father of us both. Amen.

Headlines from the Grand Mosque Siege (1979)

While I'm preoccupied with another matter, I thought you may find this little retrospective of contemporary New York Times headlines on the 1979 siege of the Grand Mosque.

AQ in Yemen

AKI reports on the first video released by an Al Qaeda cell in Yemen:

An al-Qaeda cell in Yemen, known as the Yemen Soldiers Brigade, released the group's first video on Monday on websites linked to fundamentalist Islam.

The video, which lasts 13 minutes, celebrates the death of Yemeni al-Qaeda leader, Fouz al-Rubei, who was killed in a clash with police near the capital Sanaa in October 2006.

The terrorist was found with other al-Qaeda members in a hideout, which was also used to store explosives, on the outskirts of the city.

Al-Rubei, was condemned to death in 2004 for having carried out attacks on oil pipelines in Yemen in 2002 and for having killed a soldier in the province of Abin.

He managed to escape from prison in February 2006 together with 22 other al-Qaeda members who were in the prison in Sanaa.

The video released on Monday also showed footage of an attack carried out by al-Rubei on an oil pipeline in the country.

Update:

"Like a Goat"

I came across this October 23 article today...

Bhutto receives new death threat, will avoid mass rallies in Pakistan campaign.

Source:  Canadian Press, (BFFI), 23 October 2007.

KARACHI, Pakistan _ Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto said Tuesday she had received a new death threat but will start campaigning in Pakistani cities in the next couple days, avoiding mass rallies.

Five days after the suicide bombing that killed at least 136 at her homecoming procession in Karachi, Bhutto said her lawyer received a letter from an unidentified ``friend of al−Qaida'' threatening to slaughter her "like a goat."

Bhutto said the letter was addressed to her lawyer, Farooq Naik, and had been left for him at the Supreme Court in Islamabad. She said Naik was alerting the chief justice of the threat.

"There are elements who want who to kill us," Bhutto said at her heavily guarded residence in this southern city. "They are petrified that the Pakistan People's Party will return (to power) and that democracy will return."

"They are trying to derail the democratic process because they know if the people are employed and educated the forces of extremism and terrorism will be weakened," she said.

The authenticity of the letter could not be confirmed. Bhutto said the writer claimed to be the "head of the suicide bombers and a friend of al−Qaida and Osama bin Laden."

Bhutto returned Thursday from eight years in exile to campaign for parliamentary elections due in January, after months of talks with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf that could see them working side−by−side in the next government.

She said that after discussions, her party had decided she should avoid staging mass rallies because of the risk of suicide and roadside bombings, but would still address public meetings.

"The party decided I should go from Karachi to Islamabad, Lahore or Larkana (Bhutto's hometown) in the next couple of days. We will be not be holding public rallies but will be travelling to meet the people in other provinces," she said.

Bhutto has blamed alleged extremist elements in the government and the security apparatus for the bombing that ripped through Thursday's rally in Karachi _ claims the government denies.

She alleges they include remnants of the regime of former military leader Gen. Zia−ul Haq, who oversaw mujahedeen groups that fought the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, then became Taliban and al−Qaida. She alleges some members of the ruling party, including its chief, were behind Thursday's attack.

That has raised questions about how the parties could form a coalition in support of Musharraf after the elections. Although Bhutto and Musharraf are rivals, both are moderates keen to combat religious extremism. And Musharraf has signed an amnesty to quash graft cases against Bhutto.

Bhutto's party has said she is on a list of people who are not allowed to leave the country, but local media reports say that is not the case.

Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, a close Musharraf aide, predicted Tuesday that the People's Party would be part of the next government. "There is good understanding between Gen. Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto," he said.

Bhutto also escalated her scathing criticism of ruling party leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who in an apparently sarcastic response to her claim that he is plotting to kill her, on Monday accused Bhutto's husband of arranging the blasts to stir up public sympathy.

Bhutto called that a "lunatic statement" and claimed Hussain objected to Pakistan seeking international assistance in the investigation because he wanted to "cover up this heinous terrorist attack."

Sindh provincial Gov. Ishrat Ul−Ebad Khan said Tuesday that two suicide bombers _ not one as earlier believed _ carried out the attack. He said the state agency that oversees Pakistan's national identity cards was helping to try to identify the bombers, one of whose pictures has been made public.

Accession number & update:  17UA3775 20071024.

Intriguing (Breaking) News - (Update) No Legs

Update (too late):  Sorry.  The story had no legs. 

Out of local Dallas news.

NEW: Cache Of Weapons Found In Dallas Apartment

(CBS 11 News) DALLAS Federal sources tell CBS 11 News that law enforcement officers have confiscated a large cache of weapons found in an apartment near the federal building in downtown Dallas.

Sources say a maintenance man entered the apartment in the 300 block of North Akard to work on some plumbing. Once inside, authorities say, the man found the weapons.

According to sources, among the weapons discovered were two AK-47 rifles, an Uzi 9 millimeter submachine gun, a TEC-9 submachine gun, a 40 millimeter ordnance launcher, a handheld ordnance launcher, and about 500 rounds of ammunition.

As of 6 pm, authorities had not yet arrested anyone, but were searching for the tenant of the apartment. Authorities tell us the tenant travels to the Middle East frequently and just returned from there this morning.

There's still too little information to analyze, but it's the kind of story that may grow some legs.

The Other Al Qaeda Attack

Events in London and Glasgow drowned out all coverage of a coordinated remote-controlled car bomb attack targeting a key tourist site in Yemen.  The attack killed seven Spanish tourists, and led to a show-down between Yemeni authorities and an Egyptian with suspected Al Qaeda links. 

The Egyptain, Ahmad Dewidar, was killed in a fire-fight on Thursday. 

"He was one of the leaders ... who planned the terrorist attack in Marib," a security official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to the media.

Egypt has asked Yemen to send a DNA sample of the slain suspect to confirm his identity, an Egyptian security official told the AP yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity for the same reasons.

A hardliner, Dewidar was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment in Egypt on terrorism charges, a Yemeni security official said.

Yemen's Interior Ministry described Dewidar as an important Al Qaida operative and said he opened fire and threw hand grenades at security forces who came to arrest him, injuring five.

"He had a wide and active relationship with Al Qaida elements in Yemen, Egypt, Syria and Iraq," the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

According to the AP report:

Dewidar is known in Egypt for a high profile 1999 terrorism case involving Albanian returnees, when 107 alleged hardliners were brought to court, including 13 extradited by Albania.

He was among 62 to be tried in absentia on charges, including criminal conspiracy, subversion, membership of an outlawed group, plotting to carry out attacks on officials and police, and forgery. He sought political asylum in Yemen in 2001, where he got married to a Yemeni and had two children, the official said.

Disaster in Gaza

Hamas is gloating over their seizure of the government in Gaza, and claiming to have access to intel supplied to the Fatah government by Western countries, including CIA.  If true, this could have terrible consequences for counterterrorism financing efforts in the region, and quite frankly, in the United States as well.

The terror leaders claimed the files contain, among other things, details of CIA networks in the Middle East.

"The CIA files we seized, which include documents, CD's, taped conversations, and videos, are more important that all the American weapons we obtained the last two days as we took over the traitor Fatah's positions," said Muhammad Abdel-El, spokesperson for the Hamas-allied Popular Resistance Committees terror group.

The Committees has previously been accused of carrying out anti-American attacks, including a 2003 bombing of an American convoy in Gaza that killed three American contractors.

Khalifa Killed

In a stunning, Ho - Lee - Shit! Moment the Gulf-based Khaleej Times is reporting the murder of Usama bin Laden's brother-in-law, Jamal Khalifa:

Malek Khalifa told Dubai-based Al Arabiya television that the aim of the killers appeared to have been to rob his brother, Jamal Khalifa, who mined and traded precious stones in Madagascar.

Malek said a gang of 20 to 30 gunmen broke into his brother’s bedroom on Tuesday, shot him dead “in cold blood” and stole his belongings. Arabiya said the businessman was staying at precious stones mine he owns in Madagascar when he was killed.

“We still don’t have a complete picture of the incident,” Khalifa told Arabiya by telephone from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jeddah. “I don’t think it was politically motivated,” he added in response to a question.

Jamal was alleged to have helped finance the Islamist militant Abu Sayyaf group in the Philippines.

But Malek Khalifa denied his brother was involved in political activity, and said that apart from family ties, Jamal had no links to bin Laden, who has been stripped of his Saudi citizenship.

The Khaleej Times report is absurd.  Family ties are practically everything in that part of the world, and Khalifa is widely known to have recruited and groomed south Asian terrorists for jihad including Abu Sayyaf leader Abu Bakr Janjalani.  He's also suspected of close ties to Ramzi Yousef -- the 1993 WTC bomber, and a whole host of terrorist financing activities.   

I'm also suspect of the report that this was a simple robbery.  OSAC's 2007 Crime and Safety Report for Madagascar describes the country as relatively stable with a marked decline in crime since recent national elections.  Besides Khilafa probably had enough money to live in a secured home in the best neighborhoods.  News reports have him in two locations when killed: 1) his bedroom, 2) a precious gems mine.  Apparently there were about 20-30 "gunmen" who took his computer and his belongings.  Sounds like a raid not a robbery. 

No, this is the stuff good espionage movies are made of, and I'm sure more information about this man and his work for Al Qaeda will come to light in the coming months.  Now it's time for a Snoopy Dance:

World's Weirdest Warden Message

The US Embassy in Kabul released a warden message on the 13th warning Americans in the region that there may be anti-American demonstrations in Afghanistan due to recent arrests of...Iranians in Iraq.

On January 11, 2007, coalition military forces conducted a raid on a building in Irbil, Iraq that resulted in the detainment of five Iranian nationals. This development may prompt unrest and anti-American demonstrations in Afghanistan.

The rest of the message is mostly boilerplate language reminding Americans in the region to watch their butts.  It's the first two sentences that have me scratching my head.  I have no idea why an arrest of several Iranian operatives in Irbil, Iraq would prompt demonstrations in Afghanistan.  The only thing that comes to mind (and this is pure speculation) is that the  arrested Iranians had some connection to an Afghan warlord with established connections to Iranian intel services, a man like Hekmatyar.

Your guess is as good as mine.

Terrorism Activity in Africa

Eaglespeak, a blog that covers military and maritime issues, recently reported on the current terrorism activity in Nigeria, and the seizure by Islamists of pirate bases on the coast of Somalia.

The Yutes of Belgium

Expatica paves the way for another round of "youth" speak:

Youths blamed for violent Islamic protest in Antwerp

BRUSSELS — Antwerp police arrested 55 people after Saturday's Islamic protest against the Danish cartoons of Mohammed was marred by violence and vandalism.

Some 22 youths were among those arrested. However, 53 people were only held for a short period for "administrative" reasons while two people were remanded in custody. One of them is charged with assaulting a police officer.

The arrests were carried out after Islamic protestors — primarily young immigrants — attacked police with bottles and stones in Antwerp on Saturday.

The youths were also charged with vandalism, including a tram and nine cars. Police blamed the violence was on "a stubborn, aggressive core of about 100 youths", newspaper 'De Standaard' reported.

Some 500 Muslims had gathered on the Antwerp city square Groenplaats (Green Place) at about 3pm.

The protest started peacefully as especially older Muslims requested respect for the prophet Mohammed and held their midday prayers on the city square.

Despite efforts to stage a peaceful protest, organisers could not prevent a large group of people marching towards the Grote Market (Great Market), where violent clashes between police and protestors ensued.

Older Muslims succeeded in persuading many youths against participating in the violence, assembling them in the Borgerhout mosque. However, about 100 youths remained behind as they vandalised cars and clashed with police.

In Brussels, some 200 Muslims gathered on the Brouckère Square, but the demonstration there passed off largely without incident. Eight people were briefly detained by police.

A Khawaja Killed

Canada's terror family lost one of its patriarchs this week.   Here's the account from Pakistan's Dawn newspaper:

LAHORE, Feb 13: Dr Ahmad Javed Khwaja, who had been detained for four months in the year 2002 on charges of having links with Al Qaeda, was shot dead in Manawan on Monday.

After his return from the US in 1983, Dr Khwaja ran a clinic near his house in Manawan, treating patients free of cost, his cousin Khwaja Tanvir Ahmad told Dawn. Before his return to Pakistan, he had spent over 10 years in the US where he did his Doctor of Medicine (MD) and specialization in gastroenterology, he said, adding that his cousin was also American national.

Mr Ahmad said his cousin used to attend clinic shortly after morning prayers. On Monday he was on way to the clinic when two gunmen riding a motorcycle opened fire on him and sped away. Mr Khwaja, 70, got a bullet injury and died instantaneously, he said.

Police rushed to the scene of the shooting but could not find any witness, except a beggar who was unable to speak and tried to explain the killing through gestures. Some villagers claimed to have seen the killers when they were escaping on a motorcycle. Police said the deceased received only one bullet that ripped through his head.

“It is a target killing,” Lahore investigation police Chief Chaudhry Shafqaat Ahmad told Dawn. He said that some “forces intending to create unrest in the country could have masterminded the murder.” However, he said, other aspects, including terrorism, sectarianism and personal enmity, would also be looked into.

I can't find any Western coverage of Khawaja's murder.   Too bad.  The family appears to be neck deep in terrorist activity.  There's Mohammad Momin Khawaja.  There's Mahboob Khawaja.  And then there's Naveed and Usman.

I'm going to do more research into this family.  I'm not comfortable identifying all of these people in the same family until I can make better sense of what their relationships are to each other and to Pakistan's Islamist organizations. 

Islamism is an ideology for the elite.  Since its beginning, it was thus.   The Khawaja's associations with Al Qaeda appear to run deep, but there's little comprehensive coverage of the various cases.  I see it as an opportunity to explore how Islamism influences today's Muslim elites.

Estimating the Cost of an "Average" Attack

Counterterrorism Blog posts a report on the actual costs of a terrorist attack.  Joshua Prober of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy argues that far from being “cheap,” most major terrorist attacks cost hundreds of thousands of dollars:

Terrorist attacks incur costs besides operational expenses in the days and weeks before the attacks. Networks and infrastructure in place before the attack is planned are essential for a terrorist attack. Therefore the cost of establishing and maintaining that infrastructure has to be factored into any estimate of the cost of terror attacks. Consider that planning for the embassy bombings began “in the latter part of 1993,” according to a dossier released shortly after September 11by the British Prime Minister’s Office, when “members of al-Qaeda in Kenya began to discuss the possibility of attacking Nairobi.” Although data are unavailable on the cost of living incurred by the Nairobi and Dar es Salaam cells during the five-year period prior to the attacks, surely those expenses have to be included when totaling the cost of the attacks. That suggests that the UN figure of $50,000 for the embassy bombings is low. Similarly, the UN estimate of $10,000 for the Madrid bombings seems to exclude the cost of living and the cost of training for more than twenty people involved in perpetrating the attacks.

Later on today, I am going to post a cost estimate of an "average" car-bomb attack loosely based on Prober’s pre-operational timeline of the 1998 East African bombings:

• setting up and maintaining al-Qaeda run businesses, such as Asma Limited and Tanzanite King, in Nairobi in 1993
• travel for senior al-Qaeda members (including Muhammad Atef and Ubaidah al-Banshiri) to Nairobi
• training East African al-Qaeda operatives in various skills, such as bombmaking, hijacking, kidnapping, assassination, and intelligence gathering, in al-Qaeda training camps, including sending operatives to Lebanon to train at Hizballah terrorist camps
• renting an upscale residential estate in Nairobi and turning it into a virtual bomb factory
• renting another estate in the Illah district of Dar es Salaam
• maintaining a communications network between Osama Bin Laden and East African terror cells, including using satellite phones costing $80,000 each
• bribing local border officials
• purchasing electronic equipment including state-of-the-art video cameras from China and Germany for surveillance
• purchasing the Nissan and Toyota trucks used to bomb both embassies
• purchasing the TNT bombs used at both bombings

UPDATE:

Below is my mental exercise on the average cost of an "average" car bomb attack.  This is far from a serious estimate, only guesstimates based on information from past operations.  However, it should give you a better idea of the kinds of financing a successful, large scale attack would need.  Far from being "cheap,"  the operational costs of a large-scale attack increase dramatically with its complexity.  I use the mental model of an operational cell consisting of four guys recruited, trained, and preparing for an attack:

1.    Cost of recruitment: six months of free food,  activities ($1,000/6 months).  There are the kinds of activities showcased in these videos from the Finsbury Mosque, and the kind of meetings and sessions led by Ali al-Tamimi, now serving a life sentence for recruiting young men for jihad in Pakistan after 9-11.

2.    Cost of round trip tickets to Pakistan from, say, Washington, DC: Approx. $5,500 (based on a yahoo.travel search) per person

3.    Cost of housing recruits in 1) safe houses and 2) terror camps training. According to the Probe article, " East African al-Qaeda operatives in various skills, such as bombmaking, hijacking, kidnapping, assassination, and intelligence gathering, in al-Qaeda training camps, including sending operatives to Lebanon to train at Hizballah terrorist camps" (Guessed at $10,000 per man)

4.    Recruits rent a house or apartment after return (18 months from return to operational execution).  The Madrid suspect lived (and eventually died)  in a flat where they did much of their operational planning.    (approx $800/month for 18 months=$14,000)

5.    Living expenses for four young men (approximately $500/month per man for 18 months=$36,000)

6.    Maintaining a communications network: laptops, cell phones, Internet connections ($2000 each for 4 laptops, $150/month for cell phone accounts for 18 months) (approximately $15,000)

7.    Purchasing electronic equipment including state-of-the-art video cameras and binoculars/scopes for surveillance (A basic high-powered pair of binoculars: $500 for 2; a basic digital video camcorder: $1200 for 2)

8.    Purchasing the vehicles, like the Nissan and Toyota trucks used to bomb the embassies (2 used Suburbans at about $20,000 each)

9.    Purchasing the fertilizer – ammonium nitrate.  In March 2004 London police uncovered a terrorist cell preparing to attack landmarks within the city.  They found about 1120 (US) pounds of ammonium nitrate in a lockup.  The Department of Agriculture tracks fertilizer costs.  I'll guess that any group looking to buy that much fertilizer is going to cause suspicion;  they'll have to buy it surreptitiously, increasing the costs.

1.    $6,000
2.    $22,000
3.    $40,000
4.    $14,000
5.    $36,000
6.    $15,000
7.    $1,700
8.    $40,000
9.    $1,000

The exercise comes up with a cost of $175,700.  This is not counting unforeseen costs such as loss of an apartment or an extended operational timeline, or even the cost of housing and feeding the operatives in a training camp.  If there are two or more teams of four, then you can see where the costs increase dramatically.

European Unrest

The Muslim youth riots and unrest in suburban Paris is in its seventh night.   The riots broke out after two young Muslim immigrants were electrocuted in a substation.  The rioters believe they were running away from police.  Police deny it.

According to BBC News, "Police said as many as 69 cars were set on fire on Tuesday night in nine towns in the Seine-Saint-Denis region, home to many impoverished communities."  That was on Tuesday night.  The International Herald Tribune reports on the ongoing violence in the poor, mostly Muslim immigrant communities around Paris:

Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy...says that violence in French suburbs is a daily fact of life. Since the start of the year, 9,000 police cars have been stoned and, each night, 20 to 40 cars are torched, Sarkozy said in an interview last week with the newspaper Le Monde.

Similar violence has erupted in Århus, Denmark ,with little international reporting.  An English-language Danish blogger has translated a news article on on the ongoing unrest:

Saturday morning a 16-year-old somali boy was incarcerated, accused of aggravated assault, as he friday evening threw a cobblestone through a window in the bakery. The stone passed closely by baker Børge Svaløs face. ..

He calls himself 100 percent Palestinian, born in a refugee camp in Lebanon 19 years ago, and now out of work in Denmark.

"The police has to stay away. This is our area. We decide what goes down here".

And then the bit with the drawings of the prophet Muhammed comes around:

We are tired of what we see happening with our prophet. We are tired of Jyllands-Posten. I know it isnt you, but we wont accept what Jyllands-Posten has done to the prophet", he says aggressively, and the others nod approvingly.

To of them are Turks, and it is the first time, that Turks and Palestinians act together, the 19-year-old says.

"We have planned this for three weeks. That is why only two were arrested saturday nigh. The police will cordon off it all. But we know the ways out", he claims, and then disappears, munching on a piece of pizza from Fun Pizza.

The pizzerias windows are also held together by adhesive tape after the attacks with cobblestones.