I'm back! The train was late getting in to DC, but the extra time gave me an opportunity to catch up on a bunch of blog posts I've been meaning to work on. This one, however, is not one of them. Rather, it was inspired by a series of posts I saw on my trip back. Will at Jihadica noted that the "second-tier" jihadi forums were down. I posted it on that here. Now Evan Kohlmann's noted in this Friday post on the Al-Fajr Media Center's announcement of the closure of three popular jihadi forums
It occurred to me that an online counter-insurgency strategy could include the idea "disrupting the curve." The curve here is a long tail. In library science there's a phenomenon called Bradford's Law,
..a pattern first described by Samuel C. Bradford in 1934 that estimates the exponentially diminishing returns of extending a search for references in science journals.
Anyone who is familiar with the Pareto principle or even just the shape of a powerlaw curve will understand Bradford's Law. It explains that 80% of the information within a discipline can be found in 20% of the sources.
Jihadis may like to fancy themselves different from their kuffar enemy, but in reality they behave identical to every one else when it comes to their information habits. There's a common misconception that online jihadi information is a vast, immeasurable, uncontrollable amount of internet data. This idea may make for poetic presentation statements (and excellent justifications for government program money), but it has little bearing in reality. Up until very recently, the vast majority of the OSINT jihadi material cycled through about ten or fifteen internet forums. An analyst monitoring those forums could have a handle on about 80% of the information flow within the jihadi online world.
Since the beginning of September the jihadi powerlaw curve that had essentially existed since 2004 has been systematically dismantled. By what or whom I don't know. I've worked in a wide range of subject areas since receiving my Master's degree in the mid-90s, and I've been using and managing information years prior to that. I've seen fadish subjects come and go in popularity, shrinking the amount of available new information, but I've never seen a subject's power law curve simply disappear.
This may be the opportunity of a lifetime to watch a subject area's power law curve - what I call a "subject space" -- reconstruct itself. Don't doubt this. It will happen. People are creatures of habit, and they will return to the same sources of information until it no longer exists. Much like backyard birds returning to an empty feeder, they will move on and find new sources.
Archive-dot-org may be one place that online jihadis will go to share information. It certainly wouldn't be new territory for them. I've been finding files like this for quite some time.
http://ia311213.us.archive.org/1/items/FilesOver100Mb_983/new_page_2.htm
I can't give you a definitive idea of what, if any, may be their function in the global online jihad. But I suspect that we may find even more of them as jihadis attempt to find ways to share information.