Making Sense of Jihad

Green Birds Sited

The Emerson Begolly IM transcripts (and other evidence) submitted into the court record on 13 January, is an excellent, if incomplete, picture of the online habits of contemporary American self-radicalized jihadis.  The transcripts have provided Rusty with sublime consumation of his endless years of online toil. On the other hand, Jarret points out how Begolly exploits a harmless redneck teen video as a learning experience for future terrorist plots.

The part that caught my eye comes somewhere in the middle of an 28 October 2010 IM session.  Begolly, using the ID "abunancy@almanhajribat.net" mentions the audio collection I profiled here last week: Azzam Publication's In the Hearts of Green Birds.

(7:20:44 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: so u know what he sees
(7:20:44 PM) khalidabdalhakim@almanhajribat.net: I hadn't heard that
(7:20:46 PM) khalidabdalhakim@almanhajribat.net: mashallah
(7:20:57 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: he sees paradise as soon as he is killed
(7:21 :04 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: it is a promise to the shaheed
(7:21: 10 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: that si why requently shaheeds
(7:21: 14 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: r seen smiling
(7:21: 16 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: or as i mention
(7:21 :23 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: with a buldge on their pants
(7:21 :31 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: anyway
(7:21 :38 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: have u ever listen to
(7:21 :45 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: in the hearts of green birds?
(7:21 :49 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: by azzam pubs?
<SNIP>
(7:24:25 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: anyway
(7:24:31 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: did u ever listen to that cassette?
(7:24:38 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: hearts of green birds?
(7:24:42 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: it is maybe like 15 yrs old
(7:24:48 PM) khalidabdalhakim@almanhajribat.net: no, I have not
(7:24:59 PM) abunancy@almanhajribat.net: its about the martyrs of bosnia

What's equally interesting is how Begolly picked up on the cues and details so common in jihadi media, like his comment on the "smiling shaheeds." It's common to find death mask images of dead jihadis in videos and still images.  It's clear that Begolly believed it and took it to heart.

Hear Her Roar

From a-Sharq al-Awsat:

However al-Suwailem pointed out that the problem that Haylah al Qassir has found herself in, with regards to the Saudi authorities accusing her of helping finance Al Qaeda in Yemen, is that she has Islamized her crimes, and she believes that all security officers are her "enemy" due to her husband dying at the hands of Saudi security apparatus in Riyadh in 2004.

Asharq Al-Awsat is also in possession of information that indicates that Haylah al Qassir was a highly effective and integrated member of Al Qaeda, and that she hosted a celebration in her home in honor of Abdullah al-Asiri, the Al Qaeda operative who carried out a failed suicide attack on Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef in 2009. This failed assassination attempt shocked the country, however Haylah al Qassir held a party in honor of al-Asiri, calling him a martyr.

Sheikh al-Suwailem also said that Haylah al Qassir attempted to portray everything that she had done for Al Qaeda as being part of jihad and defending religion, and that she spoke of Asma Bin Abu Bakr, and the Prophet's daughter Aisha. Al-Suwailem belives that Haylah al Qassir was supporting Al Qaeda "in revenge" for the death of her husband at the hands of the Saudi Arabian forces.

Let Me Be the First to Say It

Well, probably not "the first" per se, but here you go:

Kenya has a problem.  A really big problem.  And that is not good.

The arrest of Sheikh al-Faisal  (more here) by Kenyan authorities on Christmas Eve and the subsequent protests have brought to light the presence of Kenyan's very own Salafist-jihadis.  Al-Qaida has been operating there for at least two decades, and al-Shabaab must have fund-raising cells and wealthy and well-connected sympathizers among Kenya's enormous Somali expat and refugee community.  However, the character and extent of Kenya's native Salafist-jihadi presence is unknown and ignored for the most part.  However, the possibility of its spread must be considered a legitimate strategic threat in the region.

Kenya is sort of a strategic buffer stalling Shabaab-style Salafist-Jihadism's spread into Eastern, Sub-Saharan Africa.  If that community of al-Faisal admirers grows, it could spread throughout the region, giving al-Qaida a future in a region they currently have no "present." 

For the radicals' take on al-Faisal's arrest, start here:

http://muslimsinkenya.wordpress.com/2010/01/09/protests-in-kenya-as-muslims-vent-anger-over-cleric’s-deportation/

http://muslimsinkenya.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/sh-abdullah-feisla-al-jamaiki-being-held-by-the-kenyan-police/

http://forums.islamicawakening.com/f18/shaikh-faisal-arrested-kenya-32079/

http://revolutionmuslim.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2413:qpolice-seize-jamaican-muslim-clericq&catid=11:revolutionary-media&Itemid=15

There are nuke scientists, and then there are...

Over at Current Intelligence I posted my opinion of France's arrest of a particle physicist who worked at CERN who was in "e-mail contact" with members of AQIM.

Updated information on the charges against the suspect can be found here and here.

Shout Out

Thanks to the Skeptical Bureaucrat for the link. My latest Boyd post is up at Current Intelligence.

Oh Danny Boyd

I have a lengthy post over at Current Intelligence on the most intriguing US case since September 11th.

Only 65 Years?

I'm disappointed.  Former Holy Land Foundation leaders Shukri Abu Baker, aged 50, and Ghassan Elashi, aged 55, were both sentenced to 65 years in prison for their decades-long scam and money laundering scheme to fund Hamas terrorist operations.  Think about it.  If they live out their entire sentences then they will be a spry 115 and 120 years young, respectively, when they're released.

You never know; they may just live that long.

UPDATE:  Other than that, I'd say this is a Snoopy Moment.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Oh, and I'd like to add a little comment from the local news reports, like this.  Apparently, Dallas-area news rivals the oblivious reporting and dishonest commentary that dominated local coverage of the Aref and Hussein trial in Albany. 

Around the Web - Easter-Week Mega Edition

I know, I know.  I've been remiss in my duties to post an Around the Web, and now I've been writing one for what feels like a week. It's going to take you about a week to get through it, too, but I don't want to hear any whining. It's a slow week in most offices.  If you can catch up on your fantasy baseball picks, you can read this post.  

We start with Jihadica, and the squibs from hell: Thomas surveys recent jihadi publications. They also have a roundup of their recent Workshop in Oslo (Part I and Part II). Excellent work all around.

Staying in Europe:  Italian police carried out CT raids last week:

Three of them, who lived in Naples, are though to be Islamist radicals sympathetic to the radical 'Takfiri' ideology...The three radicals had already been involved in falsifying documents to aid jihadist groups.

Meanwhile the Financial Times throws some cold water on all this talk of Islamic finance saving the world. [This talk concerns me, because the vast majority of people who know known nothing about Islamic finance.] (via Aqoul)

And the Times of London is reporting on something that happened, what?  Two weeks ago?

Holy Spicolli!  Abu Muqawama is an actual...guy.  I thought he was just a blog.

In Stage One, the agency (in this case the FBI) embraces radical Islamist front groups.  In Stage Two reality sets in and said agency withdraws their cooperation with groups, once understood that they share the same goals as AQ.  In Stage Three these "moderate" groups start making bizarre accusations hoping to test and intimidate said agency. In Stage Four said agency will apologize for something it's not doing and cave to all demands.

So where does the money go?  This recent Reuters list of "Gulf Arab foreign investments" gives you some idea. (via The Arabist)

I welcome to the club of "blogs she reads":

Shariah Finance Watch

http://www.shariahfinancewatch.org/blog/

And a jihadi blog (via The Pest)

http://millatibraheem.wordpress.com/

Flash: there are Salafi groups in the Levant, according to MEMRI there's a new Salafist-Jihadist one in Gaza, and two S-Js reported killed in Gaza.

Meanwhile, MB's Supreme Guide plans to retire.

And apparently there's a little competition for hearts and minds inside Egypt -- and it's not between "moderates" either

Good/Bad News from Libya? (via CBSNews)

An updated CRS Backgrounder on Egypt (via The Arabist)

Morocco apparently takes sides in the struggle between Sunni Arab states and Iran.  Meanwhile, there are still plenty of jihadis in North Africa, including Salafi-Jihadis in Morocco.

The Patriarch of Venice asks an essential question at the heart of the Christianity-Islam debate in a new book "Mestizaje: coexistence, or confusion?"

Speaking of Africa: The Pest of all people pointed out the novel qualities of a current release from AQ's Somalia branch.  It's an all-English video, featuring an American muj, rapping, or something. 
More at Jawa Report, Danger Room, and others including here and here.

The Pest's post is here: http://revolution.thabaat.net/?p=1096

You can find it here: http://www.archive.org/details/kmen-bradle

The video does suggest that there is an audience for this jihadi vileness in the US, and belies the commonly acknowledged trope that "our" Muslims (ie, the US) are not as radical as "their" Muslims (ie. Europe). Perhaps, but then, how do we know?  

Over in Yemen, Waq-al-Waq notes a recent article in AQ's periodical Sada al-Malahim that provides some "good background" on KSA's 85 Most Wanted.

And MEMRIBlog reports that Yemeni officials have their own Most Wanted list

Via EagleSpeak: Somali Pirates: U.S.Navy sees a new pattern

The List: If you're interested in Israeli politics, here's the list of new government officials.

Evil.  Pure Evil.

A virtual crisis for AQ?  Tim has the link.

What about the analog version of the group? Al Qaeda Today:  a Policy Forum luncheon hosted by The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. (PolicyWatch #1477: Special Forum Report)

Drew has a post on a recent study that challenges the work of Robert Pape: Decision Processes of a Suicide Bomber

Question to the audience: How many suicide bombings in a row before it's called an offensive?
It must be Spring.

75 Salafist-Jihadist

I came across an Almasry Alyoum article last week that claims that seventy-five Salafist-Jihadists were arrested in Egypt while media outlets were focused on Israeli actions in Gaza.

The detainees were arrested last January 10 from Heliopolis, Ein Shams, al-Zaitoun, and Al-Matar Sheraton. They have been imprisoned in Abu Zabal Prison after being interrogated by in the headquarters of the security forces affiliated to the Ministry of Interior.
 
Five detainees have been recently released, the report said, adding that the defendants have been asked about their relation to bombs and websites having relation to Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. They have been also asked about their relation to the Islamic groups and attempts to blow up cafes and public places. The detainees denied all these accusations.
  

Seventy five may seem like a small number, but then again, contemporary Salafist-Jihadism has never been a mass movement. Even they fancy themselves a "vanguard." Besides, it doesn't take much to do lasting damage through terrorist attacks.  September 11th proved that.  I would guess, too, that ten enthusastic and talented young men could probably perform very effective dawah, recruiting new members and raising money for all kinds of causes and campaigns.

Rather than a social anomaly, these arrests could be indicative of a Salafist-Jihadist re-emergence in a part of the world where experts tell us it's dying. 

Around the Web – “Extra Big A**” Edition

This edition of Around the Web is dedicated to my favorite movie.  “Now with more molecules!”

We start off with a bit of Tim, or more accurately, the excellent work of ICSR, Countering Online Radicalisation: A Strategy for Action.

Looking for nasheeds in Urdu? (Go ahead, admit it, I know you are) Well, look no further, http://bintulislam.wordpress.com/taranay/

Michael over at The Opposite End of China needs your help: Who is on his carpet?

Staying in the region, here are two posts on Islam in China: One on the Persian influence, and one on the cultural divide between Malay and Chinese Muslims

Reviewing the reviewer: Kilcullen’s review of a review of his book. (via SWJ)

What is it about HTS that makes functional academics go off their rockers?  Just asking.

Good news for Yanni’s evil twin, Ali al-Marri, and bad news for us:  Al-Marri detention case ended from (via SCOTUSBlog)

And then there’s this from MEMRI: An In-Depth Summary of Sayyid Imam's New Polemic against Al-Qaeda, 'Exposing the Exoneration'

That from BBC Monitoring (via Lexis-Nexis): Al-Arabiya programme on dispute between Al-Zarqawi's followers, Al-Maqdisi. BBC Monitoring International Reports (March 4, 2009)

Ulema matter.

So do jihadi forums.

A little polemic here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12662613/Shaykh-Albani-explains-why-we-should-ascribe-to-the-SalafusSalih

A little dawah guidance there: http://ii-muflihah.blogspot.com/2009/02/10-tips-for-muslim-activists-to-deal.html

Much needed skepticism (via Axe)

But much more needed here.  [Poor bloke.  He wasn’t a terrorist, just really good friends with Abu Zubaydah]

Found via Aaron: Jihadi video and auto-radicalisation: evidence from an exploratory YouTube study

The DORAS subject bibliography has links to more studies in this area, including interesting results from a search of “Islamic law.”

A review of The Islamist at Abu Muqawama, that includes this passage:

The image of easy going weed-smoking free love (Islamic style) Sufis has always appealed to some in the West. After 9/11, it has gained new supporters who see it as a “form of Islam that we can live with”. Quite a few Muslims seem to have become drawn to Sufistic approaches to Islam precisely because it seems more West-friendly.
 
But politics is not the right reason to adopt or support an ascetic and esoteric religious path. It’s also misguided. Sufis can fight when they want to.

More nuance here with an article on Egypt’s evolving Islamism

Meanwhile, Ganesh Sitaraman advocates a reconsideration of the laws of war. (via SWJ) [Not a bad idea]

Two from the current issue of Studies in Conflict and Terrorism

Fighting Cosmic Warriors: Lessons from the First Seven Years of the Global War on Terror
Author: Heather S. Gregg a
Volume 32, Issue 3 March 2009 , pages 188 – 208

The 9/11 Attacks—A Study of Al Qaeda's Use of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
Author: Gaetano Joe Ilardi a
Volume 32, Issue 3 March 2009 , pages 171 - 187

In the OSINT corner

My post on the Revelation

A new book to get the OSINT juices flowing: The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing by Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat

Something called Elastic Lists, a new data-mining tool

And a new intel platform for the EU? (via IntelliBriefs)

"French military intelligence and European security agencies appear keen to acquire WebLab, a platform designed by EADS to extract and disseminate all types of information"

And now for something completely different

Honoring Jacques Barzun

Reviewing George Steiner

Good News and Bad News

Update:  I'd like to give a sloppy air smooch to Jawa's The Old Man of the Mountain for the link today.   SSSMOOOCH!

----------------------------------------

Good news: We picked up an AQ handler, after we tracked him for two years:

State Security forces recently managed to acquire what they described as a "treasure trove of information" from an Al-Qaeda recruiter caught while he was on his way back from Iran using a forged GCC passport. A security official said that the suspect, a former military officer identified only as MSAA, had been placed under close covert surveillance for more than two years. They added that the man has confessed to playing a major role in recruiting young men in Kuwait and other GCC nations to join the Mujahideen in Afghanistan.

Bad news: It's a sign that AQ maintains logistical operational goals on the Peninsula.  Oh, and he's probably not the only one. 

Recent Article Roundup

From the current issue of Critical Studies on Terrorism, vol 1 # 3, December 2008

Torture and terrorism: an interview with Moazzam Begg
Author: George Kassimeris a

Six rather unexplored assumptions about al-Qaeda
Author: Joshua Alexander Geltzer

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol 31 #12, December 2008

Al Qaeda's Operational Intelligence—A Key Prerequisite to Action
Gaetano Joe Ilardi

Abstract

For Al Qaeda, intelligence is a critical operational resource. Its vigorous collection, scrutiny, and dissemination within the organization have proven fundamental to its capacity to engage in carefully crafted acts of terrorism...

Mediterranean Quarterly, 2008 Vol 19 #4

Disarming Hezbollah
Brent J. Talbot and Heidi Harriman

Abstract
Hezbollah has become a powerful yet destabilizing force in Lebanon, affecting internal stability, allowing Syria and Iran dangerous influence, delaying peace with Israel, and complicating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, it forces the United States to struggle between traditional support for Israel and newfound support for Lebanese democracy...

Examining the Case for War: Allegations of Iranian Interference in Iraq
Philip Giraldi

Abstract

Iran poses two fundamental challenges to the United States. First is its alleged program to develop a nuclear weapon, which is currently being negotiated and which might be managed and contained through concerted international action. Second, and more threatening in the long term, are its roles as a regional hegemon and as a participant in the political development of neighboring Iraq...

The Regional and International Implications of Kosovo Independence
Gordon N. Bardos

Abstract
The support of the United States and some European Union countries for Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence has in many ways contributed to a deterioration of the security situation in southeastern Europe...

 

Journal of Palestine Studies, Autumn 2008, Vol. 38, # 1

Secrets and Lies: The Persecution of Muhammad Salah (Part II)

In this two-part exclusive report, Salah's lawyers recount for the first time the details of their client's labyrinthine case. ...Part II focuses on the post-9/11 period that unfolded under the George W. Bush Justice Department, starting with Salah's indictment in November 2004, continuing with the two years of contentious pretrial preparations and hearings, and ending with the trial itself. As in part I, the legal dimensions of the case are emphasized, as are the government's maneuvers to advance new standards governing the admissibility of coerced confessions and secret evidence at trial and to manipulate other established principles of the U.S. criminal justice system.

Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Thwarted Plots [ver 2]

We're finally receiving reliable information on the Mumbai attack, and it's clear that Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) is the group responsible.  For many folks this may have been the first time they've heard of the group, but I've been studying thwarted plots since 2004, and in nearly every case there was some LeT connection.   Either the plotters trained in LeT camps, directed by LeT handlers, or LeT members.  Many of these failed plots shared elements seen in Mumbai.  It's as if LeT had been attempting Mumbai-like attacks for a long time.  After numerous attempts in the UK, Australia, and the US, they succeeded in India.  

Here's a list of the failed plots that included some connection to Let. I'm working from memory, folks. I'll write down what I can remember off the top of my head now, and return to this tomorrow (tomorrow's edits will be in green):

2000-2004, "Operation Crevice":  British Muslims -- most of Pakistani descent -- were arrested in early 2004 after plotting to bomb a dance club, a shopping mall, and other sites.  The cell also included a Canadian, Momin Khawaja and had connections with an American, Junaid Babar.

2000-2004, "Banks Plot":  Lead by AQ's emir in the UK - Issa al-Hindi -- the plot included targets in NYC's financial district, including a former Jewish center, financial institutions in Philadelphia and Washington, DC.  Al-Hindi's professional reconnaissance reports and videos of the intended targets were discovered after his arrest.  His time operating in Kashmir for LeT, also known as "The Army of Madinah," is immortalized in The Army of Madinah in Kashmir (see my study here).

2001-2003, Lodhi-Brigitte Plot.  An early Australian plot to target Australia's electric power grid and attack different sites around Sydney ended in November 2003 Australian officials arrested a French convert to Islam  -- Willie Brigitte -- who had received training in a Lashkar camp.  According to court records he was directed to go to Australia by an LeT handler and hook up with Faheem Lodhi. 

Also note that members of the Virginia Jihad Network testified at Faheem Lodhi's trial.

2002-2005, London 7/7: Four men bombed the London transportation systems.  Ayman al-Zawahiri claimed responsibility for the attacks.  At least one of the bombers -- Shehzad Tanweer -- attend LeT madrasa in Pakistan.

2003-2005, Lodi Case.  Hamid Hayat attends a LeT camp where he is trained to attack financial and government buildings.

2004-2006, "Operation Pendennis": 22 men were arrested in cells based in Melbourne (and Sydney) was plotting attacks on the Melbourne Stock Exchange and a train station among other targets including tourist sites in Sydney.  Several of the members had received training in an LeT camp.

2004-2006, "Airliner Plot:"  Members of the UK based cell plotting to detonate sophisticated liquid explosives on 10 jumbo airliners crossing the Atlantic were associated with "charitable" services in Kashmir. 

January 2008, Barcelona Case:  Spanish authorities arrest 14 people, most from the subcontinent in a plot that they described at the time as an attack like Madrid. "The detainees were part of a terrorist sleeper cell which was activated from Pakistan with the arrival in Spain of one of their members, who acted as liaison with the leadership of Al-Qaida, the report said."

This list wasn't meant to be comprehensive, only illustrative of LeT's oeprational persistance.  It's not just a "Kashmir" group, and it hasn't been for quite some time.  The questions now are: why? how? and who?  And my favorite: where does AQ end and LeT begin?

On All Counts

A long, tedious and glum weekend filled with personal disappointments has ended in a beautiful crescendo.  The scumbags of the Holy Land Foundation are guilty on all counts:

The men, Shukri Abu-Baker, Ghassan Elashi, Mohamed El-Mezain, Mufid Abdulqader and Abdelrahman Odeh, could face up to 20 years in prison for their convictions on conspiracy counts, including conspiring to provide material support to terrorists. The verdicts, read Monday afternoon, ended a two-year saga in what is considered the largest terror financing case since the 9/11 attacks.

In the original trial last year, jurors acquitted El-Mezain on 31 of the 32 counts against him, but could not reach unanimous verdicts on any other counts, prompting a mistrial.

Prosecutors made a series of significant adjustments, from dropping 29 counts each against defendants Mufid Abdulqader and Abdelrahman Odeh, to adding new witnesses who could put the charity support in context. In addition, jurors in this trial saw three exhibits Israeli military officials seized from the Palestinian Authority which showed the PA also considered HLF to be a Hamas financer and that an HLF-supported charity committee was controlled by Hamas.

The result was a much more streamlined case that followed a logical narrative, said Peter Margulies, a law professor at Roger Williams University in Rhode Island. Seeing the Palestinian Authority reach the same conclusion as the U.S. government had to have helped, he said.

In addition, prosecutors provided summary exhibits that served as "a road map" to the case and had to help jurors deliberate, Margulies said. "The jury was able to look at the evidence and get past the perceived biases of any of the witnesses and see the evidence as a whole."

That evidence made clear that the defendants knew where the money raised in the U.S. was going despite legal prohibitions against support for Hamas.

There's no dancing in Dallas tonight.  They are guilty. 

The significance of this case cannot be overstated.  In the brief time in 2003 I spent as an FBI analyst almost a third of the cases that passed over my desk were connected in some way to Holy Land. I suspect that at least some of those cases will finally result in the much deserved arrests and trials now that there's a whole flock of jail birds who may sing for commuted sentences. 

Let's pray that government prosecutors have learned rich lessons from this second prosecution of the Holy Land players, and that they will move forward with these very difficult and complicated cases of money laundering and that oh-so-subtle jihad that seeks the day when the sun of Islam rises from the West.

I raise a glass of French bubbly to the men and women -- the special agents, lawyers, and to those unsung heroes of the GWOT, the FBI analysts -- who dedicated long miserable hours to bring these scumbags to justice.  Thank you!

This is more than a Snoopy Dance moment.  It's a "Blue Skies" moment:

Around the Web

First things first.  A little note to a friend: Congratulations on your engagement, c!

I'll start off this week's edition with a little dose of reality via The Shack.

My humble advice is to wait until after the guy is sworn in to claim victory in the War on Terrorism.

It's getting worse in the Gulf of Aden.  Despite increasing naval commitments in the region, a Danish ship was taken this past Friday.  

Londonstani stirs up a hornets' nest.

Ubi looks tired.

And I ask you, reader: how medieval can you get?  I love the idea.  It would sow the seeds of the most perfect fitna evah!

Jane has news of a new threat to CONUS.  Actually, it's not new.  I warned my (then)client about just such a possibility two years ago.

And a recent report on Somalia's al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, Will has a summary of the new issues of Sada al-Malahim, the jihad journal of AQ in Yemen.  The Clearinghouse post links to still-active download links.  Git 'em while they're...active.

Over at the Pest's blog, he notes the arrest of Abu Qatada, http://revolution.muslimpad.com/2008/11/08/shaykh-abu-qatadah-has-been-arrested-this-morning/.

A case of "hijra" gone terribly wrong. (The last sentence is a runner up for "understatement of the year")

Wait, I thought it was the Israelis.  

Speaking of Israel:  "Energy and the Arab-Israeli Conflict," Middle Eastern Studies, Volume 44, Issue 6 November 2008 , pages 937 - 944.  Looks interesting.

Very strange bedfellows.

In OSINT news

A new EU-funded project called PEER (Publishing and the Ecology of European Research):

PEER (Publishing and the Ecology of European Research), supported by the European Union (EU), will investigate the effects of the large-scale, systematic depositing of authors’ final peer-reviewed manuscripts (so-called Green Open Access or stage-two research output) on reader access, author visibility, and journal viability, as well as on the broader ecology of European research. The project is a collaboration among publishers, repositories, and researchers and will last from 2008 to 2011.

ZIA links to a new study, Mathematical Model of a Hostage Situation.  And this. Ushahidi:

In a nutshell, Ushahidi allows individuals to report instances of violence, looting, and other incidents via  local SMS messages. The report is then displayed on a web-based map using the Ushahidi engine.

More at Intellibriefs.

While others do, the IC keeps on talking about dots and the need to connect them:

The report, “Defense Imperatives for New Administration”, released on Nov. 4, said combating terrorism requires putting domestic intelligence collection on par with foreign intelligence. The creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which placed all intelligence agencies under an umbrella organization, was supposed to achieve this parity. But the science board said, “successive directors of national intelligence have been slow to embrace domestic intelligence, and that must be remedied.”

I'm sure he's just an OSINT analyst

From today's NY Post:

Cops made the disturbing find Thursday evening after a landlord found the photocopied IDs inside the apartment of a former tenant on Classon Avenue in Prospect Heights and dialed 311.

The tenant, Hisham Khaleel, 35, had been evicted.

Responding officers found 13 copied licenses, all of which appeared to belong to customers from the Vanderbilt YMCA on East 47th Street in Manhattan, where Khaleel worked briefly as an unarmed security guard.

They also found news clippings about al Qaeda, literature on chemical purchasing and processing, an owner's manual for a Beretta handgun, a reference guide for modern airplanes, a video on rifle-shooting fundamentals and a sniper's manual.

Cops also uncovered lab glassware catalogs and a book, "Hostile Planet: The Essential Guide to Surviving Natural Disasters, Pandemics and Terrorist Attacks."

Jihad in Europe Roundup

In Amsterdam (via AP):

An appeals court on Thursday increased the prison sentences of four Islamic radicals accused of plotting attacks on Dutch politicians, convicting them of the additional charge of membership in a terrorist organization...

Judges cited their adherence to a single violent belief system, their training with firearms, and their coordinated efforts to find the addresses of Dutch politicians on a hit-list, including the prime minister.

The court's judges added a year to the sentence of ringleader Samir Azzouz, 22, giving him a total of nine years in prison. Azzouz had videotaped a suicide testament.

Both defendants and prosecutors had appealed the original ruling. The defendants asked for acquittal and the prosecutors sought longer sentences, including 15 years for Azzouz.

Azzouz "has made it apparent that he despises Dutch society," judges said in a written ruling. "He has shown that he has no respect for those who have different views and knows no compassion for the potential victims of the acts he planned."

In Italy (via AP): 

The Court of Cassation confirmed the conviction of Rabei Osman and upheld a previous eight-year jail sentence by a Milan appeals court, said lawyer Luca D'Auria...

Previous rulings found Osman had ties to the terror cell that carried out the bombings on the Madrid commuter rail system that killed 191 people and wounded more than 1,800.

Spanish courts have also tried Osman. He was acquitted on mass murder charges for insufficient evidence, while judges ruled that because he had been sentenced in Italy for association with a terror group, he could not be condemned again for the same crime.

En France (via Reuters):

Safe Bourada, 38, the suspected leader of the group, has already served a 10-year sentence for his role in Islamist attacks in France in 1995...

Bourada has admitted setting up in 2003 an activist group called Ansar al Fath, or Partisans of Victory. He told prosecutors the organization was created to help finance the Iraqi insurgency and has denied planning attacks in France.

The prosecution say the group was in contact with al Qaeda's leadership in Iraq. Police say an informer told them the group was plotting to target Paris's Orly Airport and the metro network in the French capital.

Around the Web

Note to Hesperado:  you're banned.  Don't take it personally, but your comments are too f-ing long.  Get your own blog. 

As a matter of fact I'm turning off comments.  I just don't have the time now to manage that part of the blog.

Bill at Long War Journal reports on the capture of more senior AQ leadership in Iraq.

In the New York Times today, Michael Goldfarb reviews Quil Lawrence's new book, Invisible Nation:  How the Kurds Quest for Statehood is Shaping Iraq and the Middle East.

Also in the Times this morning, Max Rodenbeck reviews Keneth Pollack's modest proposal for a generation-long commitment in the Middle East, A Path Out of the Desert.

Kim Holmes dips her toe into the mire of "Islam"-analysis with an interested Issues paper at the Heritage Foundation, "Exploring Concepts of Liberty in Islam."

Vengeance, served cold. Hizbollah announces their intention to avenge the assassination of Imad Mugniyeh.  (Via MEMRI)

The "emir" of the UK has been arrested.  "Sheikh Umar Rabie al-Khalaila" is in his early 20s. (via Jawa Report)  More at the Times (UK).

Crossroads Arabia links to two Arab News articles on dawa in KSA, "Both pieces caution that being heavy handed about it is, at best, counter-productive."

Will at Jihadica has an interesting post on an Ekhlass forum discussion of the recent conversion to Christianity of a Hamas leader's son,

Ansari is also able to connect the believed dangers from the United States and Christianity to Gaza. In doing so, he is attempting to frame the Palestinian conflict in al-Qaida’s Islamic narrative where almost everyone is an enemy. This is in contrast to Hamas’ Palestinian narrative that has much more grey area, depending on Hamas’ goals at a particular time, about who the enemy is and how to deal with the threat.

MESH (Middle East Strategy at Harvard) has a Facebook page.

Ubiwar talks MI5.

Thumb Drive from Hell

ABC News is reporting tonight that Aafia Siddique had a 1 GB thumb drive on her when she was caught, and that it included copies of e-mail communications between operational cells, possibly planning attacks.

Aafia Flights of Fancy

There's a dive bar in Montauk, LI, called Liars.  Over the bar there's a sign that reads to effect, It doesn't matter if the story's true as long as it's good.  That pretty much sums up the last five-plus years of "news" reports surrounding Aafia Siddiqui.

There are many reasons to celebrate her capture, not the least being her impressive background in biological research.  Her academic achievements at MIT could have (and probably were) used willingly in the cause of global jihad.  But since her disappearance in Pakistan in 2003 the information vacuum regarding her whereabouts and activities have been filled with an assortment of "stories" in the Pakistani and Indian presses.  Most of them were just that:  stories.  It didn't help that she was a fugitive for a long time, a little more than five and half years.  To some extent she became a terrorist Elvis in the regional press, with sightings of her all over the region.

I hope we have at least some of this information cleared up, but the government (if it cares to respond) needs to clear out a cesspit of lies and gossip surrounding her disappearance, interim activities, and subsequent capture.   Because, as Rusty at the Jawa Report notes today, the flights of fancy surrounding her are taking a new turn.  She's now the "helpless" woman/victim, particularly as the chimera "Prisoner 650."

Recently several "human rights groups" began to associate "Prisoner 650" with Aaifia Siddiqqui. Based on what? Nothing other than believing that "Prisoner 650" exists, that Siddiqqui was missing and wanted by the FBI, and one of Siddiqqui's uncles claiming he thought she had been picked up by the ISI for questioning...

The rumors that women were being held and tortured at Bagram Air Base by the U.S. was started by ... al Qaeda. The rumor that Aaifia Siddiqui was being held by the U.S. was started by ... Siddiqui's family, many of which are known al Qaeda sympathizers. On top of that, this is Pakistan we're talking about, where "facts" are often derived from rumors.

This may not matter to a Western audience, where most of the news of terrorist prosecutions have been greeted with a collective shrug, barely garnering local media attention (ie HLFRD trial, Al-Arian prosecution, etc).  It does matter in Pakistan, however, where Siddiqui has become a celebrity.  Her trial here in the US will probably have wide coverage over there.  Winning hearts and minds in Pakistan has become important for the GWOT.  Without a comprehensive media response to what is about to accompany its prosecution, the government may win a prosecution, but it could lose an important front in the image war in Pakistan.

Confirmation

There's nothing like a criminal complaint and a scheduled court hearing to prove a fugitive is in custody.   Aafia Siddiqui, a smart and dangerous  al-Qaida member has been in the can since mid-July. 

The skepticism I blogged the other day was inspired by the source:  a Pakistani newspaper. But the Jawa Report links to the complaint and Andrew Cochran at the Counterterrorism Blog has an excellent roundup. 

Here are a few MSM articles:

ABC's The Blotter
NY Times
Reuters

It's time for a Snoopy Dance moment...

"Sahabs"

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I was heading into a lull on posting just to get through a few articles.  Well, it didn't happen then, but is happening now.  I need a break.  Right now, I'm just more interested in "sahabs."  No not As-Sahab, these "sahabs."

Don't get me wrong.  Just because DC is easing into its summer lull, doesn't mean there's isn't plenty of interesting news and research to comment on.  For instance:

There's an ongoing policy debate over the efficacy of having our security and military  agencies "working with" radical Islamist front groups whose long term strategy is the ultimate destruction of the American way of life.

In an apparent example of economic jihad, Moroccan officials say they broke up a cell preparing attacks on tourist sites.

China's official news agency actually reports on the country's other Muslims, the Hui, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/23/content_8424881.htm

New Scientist reports that leftist archaeologists are going to let US and/or Israel bomb cultural sites inside Iran. 

Crossroads Arabia notes that a senior Saudi scholar called Bin Laden names, or something.  Big deal.  Unless they're willing to excommunicate him (and they won't), it doesn't matter.

Apparently, our man (al-)Libbi is too busy for video.  His latest is an audio is summarized at Internet Terrori Monitor.

Half a world away, The Pest posts pics of a smiling Abu Qatada, who has apparently fallen off the wagon on his diet.  The link is here:  http://revolution.muslimpad.com/2008/07/11/may-allah-protect-you-shaykh-abu-qataadah/

The Long War Journal reports on the surrender of the "unconventional" warlord, Bibi Aysha.  (Before you get  shocked! that a patriarchal tribal society like the ones found in SW Asia could produce a Bibi Aysha, just remember there are Western examples, too, including my favorite.)

Perspectives on Terrorism published an article exploring the "battle of ideas" from the Pakistan perspective.  Meanwhile, a new NEFA Foundation report reminds us why Pakistan is so important.

Kevin Knodell's "backgrounder" posts on Central Africa (at War is Boring here, here and here) are great starting off point for anyone curious about the region. I suspect that Central Africa is going to become a region of much greater strategic interest in the next five years.

Mihalka and Anderson have written "Is the Sky Falling?  Energy Security and Transnational Terrorism."  Good work.  I agree with the conclusion, but it is based entirely on data analysis.  Comprehensive CT analysis needs a little more. After all there were no hijack-jetliner-crash-into-skyscraper data points on September 10, 2001.  Still it's worth reading, because it sums up all the OSINT data we do have on terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure.  Their article is published in the US Navy's Center for Contemporary Conflict's journal Strategic Insights.

Speaking of oil IntelFusion recently linked to a Harvard-based report on the possible impact of a closure of the Straits of Hormuz.  It's a reminder of how complex and -- vulnerable -- the global energy supplies are to "outside" events.

And speaking of IntelFusion, they're reporting on new efforts by DoD in something called "cloud computing." See also this KMWorld report.

I'm back to those clouds again.  Posting will be light over the next two weeks as I seek to get a little more out of my summer of "independence."

Al Arian Gets an Ankle Bracelet?

The Investigative Project on Terrorism website reports that Sami al-Arian may be released on bond pending trial on criminal contempt charges. 

Al-Arian faces two counts of criminal contempt for his refusal to testify before federal grand juries investigating terror financing by a northern Virginia think tank, the International Institute of Islamic Thought (IIIT), with which he had worked closely. Prosecutors granted him immunity in exchange for his truthful testimony and his defiance triggered two civil contempt orders.

Jailbirds Still

Despite the best efforts of the local ACLU branch and other anti-American groups, Yassin Aref and Mohammed Hossain (aka the Moussed Mujahideen*), will remain behind bars:

The U.S Second Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the convictions of Yassin Aref, 37, and Mohammed Hossain, 53, who were sentenced last year to 15 years each in prison for their roles in a fake plot to attack the Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations in New York with a missile.

Both appealed their convictions of money-laundering and conspiring to provide material support to the Pakistan-based Islamic militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. government.

The federal appeals court rejected all the defense's arguments, including that the men did not know missiles were involved.

"The evidence sufficed for a jury to conclude that Aref intended to aid in preparing a missile attack on American soil," the ruling said, concluding the same for Hossain.

During the 2006 trial, the two were found to have laundered $50,000 from an FBI informant who said he worked for the militant group.

*Why are they "moussed"?  At the time of their arrest, both men were wearing the traditional Salafist beards and flowing robes.  In the interim between arrest and trial, someone advised a more, er, western look:  trimmed beards, suits, and well-coiffed hair.

Saudi Response - And the plot itself

Given the current hysterics over the price of gas here in the US, you would think that something like the thwarting of a third large scale attack against oil installations in Saudi Arabia would garner a bit more attention.  But, the only news trickling out about this week's arrests are in the Saudi and other Peninsula papers. 

What's interesting is the scope of the plot. It appears to have been as ambitious as the ones from previous years.  It included a maritime element to attack "offshore" facilities (ie. Ras Tanura).

Saudi Gazette (via BBC monitoring - no link), notes what Will at Jihadica discusses here, that the plotters were informed by Abu Bakr al-Naji's Management of Savagery.

[Maj. Gen. Mansour Al-Turki] told Okaz that investigations conducted with the arrested terrorist groups revealed that they were working under a strategy mentioned in the seized books talking about "the management of barbarism" (Idarat At-Tawahhush).

Back in September 2005, I noted that this book could reflect al-Qaida's "current operational thinking:"

As for the larger attacks on petroleum infrastructure, he offers a step-by-step ideological, media, and physical plan of attack.First, the movement’s experts would gather data to support their claims of injustice.   In this case, “an economic specialist among its member can conduct a study that demonstrates the real value and real price of oil…” The report would go on to show the “extent of the unfairness and plunder to which the nation was subjected for decades…”

Second, the movement would demand that all countries that import oil should pay the fair price, “while preserving the Muslim people’s right to demand payment that would cover the price discrepancy throughout all previous years.”

Third, a period of time would be given, in his words, “to assess the degree of responsiveness to this declaration.”  If nothing happens, then “attack would begin on the oil installation, particularly the pipelines, the bombing of which does not involve killing people.  The oil tankers that are managed and operated by infidels would be attacked.  Oil installation and refineries would be attacked at such times when that are empty of workers to avoid hurting Muslims persons.”  However, he adds, regarding the “sentries” at oil installations:  if they are members of the local army they should be “treated as traitors to their nations” and as for private security companies, “They may be attacked only if they try to kill or capture some of the attacking mujahideen…”

Saudis thwarting a large-scale attack is getting to be a regular summer event, like July 4th or the shorebird migration.  It's a sign of their CT efforts that many of the plotters appear to have been from countries other than Saudi Arabia, but next year may be a difference story, since even more Iraq and Afghan-hardened mujahideen will have returned to their homelands on the Peninsula.

Perhaps more important than countering these cells, is getting to the brains of these energy plots (which are clearly top-down affairs):  Ayman al-Zawahiri.

===============================

UPDATE:  Via MEMRI Economic Blog (emphasis mine)

Saudis Reveal that Terrorists Were Targeting Oil Installations in Gulf Countries
06/27/2008

High-level Saudi security officials told the Kuwaiti daily, al-Qabas, that members of a terrorist cell, some non-Saudis, arrested by the Saudi security forces, were planning to sabotage oil installations in the Gulf countries. They were also planning to use speed boats to carry on attacks against off-shore installations and ships. The Saudi authorities added that the terrorists were planning to carry out their attacks at a big distance from their base of operations. Pictures of major hotels frequented by visitors in some major Gulf cities and city maps were also confiscated.

al-Qabas, June 27, 200